maxomai: dog (dog)
PPP released their poll (PDF) of Iowa's likely caucus participants yesterday. Among Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents:

Trump 19
Carson 12
Walker 12
Bush 11
Fiorina 10
Cruz 9
Huckabee 6
Rubio 6
The rest <= 3
MOE 3.9

Obviously Trump still leads the pack by a lot, but notice with whom Bush is sharing tier two: Ben Carson, Scott Walker, Carly Fiorina, Ted Cruz. Everyone else falls to tier three or four. Of these, Fiorina had the most impressive gain, going from the loser's table to a dead heat with Bush.

As for the Democrats:

Clinton 52
Sanders 25
O'Malley 6
Webb 3
Chafee 1
MOE 4.1

No surprises here. Clinton has tier one to herself, Sanders has tier two to himself. The rest are all tier three.
maxomai: dog (dog)
Fellow EBC veteran and Texas progressive holdout Russell pointed his friends to today's PPP poll. Quoting:

PPP's newest national Republican poll finds a clear leader in the race for the first time: Scott Walker is at 25% to 18% for Ben Carson, 17% for Jeb Bush, and 10% for Mike Huckabee. Rounding out the field of contenders are Chris Christie and Ted Cruz at 5%, Rand Paul at 4%, and Rick Perry and Marco Rubio at 3%.


This is just a poll of the GOP field, and as is pretty typical of these polls at this time of the primary, there's instability among the first preference. (Remember when Michelle Bachmann was the front runner in 2012?) I would be VERY surprised if Walker held his own against Jeb Bush. Walker isn't nutty enough to be third tier, but he's probably second tier.

Still — if you're not exactly enthusiastic about Hillary Clinton for President, and not a lot of lefties are, ask yourself whether she's better or worse than Scott Walker. That makes the decision disappointingly simple.
maxomai: dog (dog)
Via PollingReport.com comes the latest round of monthly head-to-head polling matching up Hillary Clinton versus the most likely Republican candidates. It ain't pretty. After Bridgegate, the candidate who comes closest to beating Clinton is Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI). Clinton still beats Ryan by fifteen points, which is the generally accepted definition of a landslide.

I've said it over and over again: if Hillary Clinton runs in 2016, she wins. This just supports my case.
maxomai: dog (dog)
Rasmussen's been acting funny of late, but a lot of people still trust this lean-R poll. For my money, lean-D PPP is a bit better once you account for the bias. But Rasmussen seems to hold more sway with conservative audiences. And that is why their latest poll of Kentucky should scare the shit out of Mitch McConnell.


500 Kentucky LVs polled January 29-30 2014

McConnell (R) 42
Grimes (D) 42

The rest of the poll is behind a paywall, but Rasmussen claims that they show McConnell's primary opponent, Matt Bevin, beating Grimes by six points.

Rasmussen has a Republican bias in their likely voter model — meaning, they count more Republicans as likely voters than are actually likely to show up. This cuts two ways here. On the one hand, if exaggerated GOP turnout leads to a McConnell tie, then Grimes is probably a few points ahead of him. On the other hand, an exaggerated Republican electorate might prefer a more conservative candidate like Bevin over McConnell, but that means that Bevin will have an easier time beating Grimes if Rasmussen's LV model is correct. And, it bears mentioning, if Bevin doesn't make some stupid, inane remark that makes him the next Todd Akin. I would bet money that one of those two conditions will fail.

Nonetheless, this poll makes the case that McConnell is a weaker candidate than Bevin, and does so in a way that's compelling to McConnell's base. Between this and probably trailing Grimes, this poll has to sting at McConnell HQ this morning.
maxomai: dog (dog)
If you want a sneak preview of what will happen in the 2014 elections, go ahead and add this site to your RSS feeds now. You can also add it to your friends list by adding [livejournal.com profile] princetonelect. Just go do it and get it over with. I'll be referring to this site in future postings.
maxomai: dog (dog)
Quinnipiac University is polling the 2016 Presidential race (yes, yes, I know).

Clinton (D) 49
Christie (R) 36

Clinton (D) 54
Cruz (R) 31

Clinton (D) 53
Paul (R) 36

N=1497
MOE=2.5

Among voters who are Democratic or lean Democratic:
Clinton 61
Biden 11
Warren 7
Cuomo 2
Warner 1

If she's thinking about running (and recent press releases indicate that she is), these numbers should encourage her to go for it. There's no guarantee that these numbers will last. Numbers like this can barely be counted on to last three weeks, let alone three years. But they demonstrate a depth of base support that simply wasn't there for her in 2008, when Obama and Edwards were credible, more progressive alternatives.
maxomai: dog (dog)
The good news: Rick Perry is not going to run for Governor again.

The bad news: Progressive darling and TX State Sentaor Wendy Davis still loses against the other likely Republican candidate for Governor, Attorney General Greg Abbot.

PPP (July 2, 2013)
Abbot 48
Davis 40
MOE 4.4%

The Ugly News: According to that same PPP poll, Davis is the best candidate against Abbot that the Democrats have.

Abbot 48
Castro 34

Abbot 50
Parker 31

Abbot 48
White 36

If I were a lord high muckity muck of the Texas Democratic Party, I would put my full weight behind Wendy Davis. It's not going to turn Texas blue, or even put the Democrats back in charge of statewide offices or the legislature. But she's the emotional favorite, and as of the latest PPP poll, she's the real, best chance they have to make a dent.
maxomai: dog (Default)
John Kerry is our new Secretary of State, and Governor Patrick has picked his interim replacement (Mo Cowan). The actual replacement for John Kerry needs to be chosen in a special election, and that will happen in June.

I said last month that Scott Brown, whom Elizabeth Warren defeated in November, would win this special election. PPP confirms that, if he runs, he would be the front runner.

MA-SEN
N = 763

Brown (R) 48
Markey (D) 45

Brown (R) 48
Lynch (D) 38


Markey is the stronger Democrat in this race, and he could still win with a sufficient effort. But Brown still has the edge.

In fact, I'd say that the most important factor right now in whether Brown is the next non-interim Senator from Massachusetts ... is whether he runs for Governor. And that Governor's race must look tempting.

MA-GOV
N = 763

Brown (R) 49
Berwick (D) 32

Brown (R) 48
Grossman (D) 37

Brown (R) 49
Ortiz (D) 32

The Governor's race, by the way, is not until November 2014. Meanwhile, the Senate race is in five months .. and then he has to run for that same Senate seat again in November 2014. To me, if I trust PPP, this decision is a no-brainer; but if I really, really want to be in the Senate....
maxomai: dog (Default)
There's a massive selection bias in this poll:

Romney 46
Obama 43

Why do I say that there's a selection bias? Because:

This poll was conducted by telephone on May 11-13, 2012 among 615 adults nationwide, including 562 registered voters, who were first interviewed for a CBS News/New York Times Poll conducted April 13-17, 2012.


This might make for good narrative building, but it makes for a lousy scientific poll.

That's not to say that the poll is out of the ballpark. Rasmussen has Romney up four, Gallup has Obama up one. It is to say that any future polls by CBS News and the New York Times need to be taken with a lot of salt, until they fix their methodology.
maxomai: dog (Default)
There's a massive selection bias in this poll:

Romney 46
Obama 43

Why do I say that there's a selection bias? Because:

This poll was conducted by telephone on May 11-13, 2012 among 615 adults nationwide, including 562 registered voters, who were first interviewed for a CBS News/New York Times Poll conducted April 13-17, 2012.


This might make for good narrative building, but it makes for a lousy scientific poll.

That's not to say that the poll is out of the ballpark. Rasmussen has Romney up four, Gallup has Obama up one. It is to say that any future polls by CBS News and the New York Times need to be taken with a lot of salt, until they fix their methodology.
maxomai: dog (Default)
Right now I'm cracking up at the Tea Party telling themselves that Liberals just LURV Senator Dick Lugar (R-IN) over Koch Brothers puppet Richard Mourlock. For example:


"This is whats going to happen: Lugar will get pramried out and Mourdock will win the election. Because real americans will always vote for a genuine conservative, not some Soros-funded communist who hates america and supports islam!" - From Saturday hate mail-a-palooza: Hitching up with a Republican senator, of the front page of DailyKos

"This is all economics 101 for Republicans, but I guess they feel they can say anything to an audience of Democrats, as long as they serve the purpose of reelecting an 80-year old liberal." - from The Ultimate Treachery, a diary on RedState

"Lugar is a an Loony Left Liberal Lemming Drone." - Michael Gaines, from this FaceBook thread.

"Why should Hoosiers trust Lugar to lead the charge on health care? He has partnered with liberals to pass their plans, he has supported mandates, and he has cosponsored big entitlement spending. This year’s elections will be a referendum on ObamaCare, but unlike Richard Mourdock, Dick Lugar hasn’t even signed onto the Repeal ObamaCare pledge!" - Daniel Anderson, FreedomWorks for America


Part of the reason why this shit cracks me up is because I and many other liberals worked to defeat Dick Lugar in the past. In my own case we tried in 1994, and failed, because that's what happens when you try to defeat a well-liked Republican in a Republican wave year.

Part of the reason I'm guffawing at the gullible is that Lugar, like most of the rest of the Republican bloc, has been in lockstep opposition to everything President Obama has proposed from day one. It might make a difference to the Koch Brothers, who would prefer a controllable ally to an independent one, as to which Republican gets that seat, but it makes no difference to the Democrats, and little to Obama's agenda.

But, really, most of the reason why this cracks me up is that I and a lot of other partisan Democrats have been cheering on Mourlock over Lugar for months now. Why, you ask, would we do this? Here's why:

Donnelly (D) 29
Lugar (R) 42

Donnelly (D) 34
Mourlock (R) 28
Source: The Hill

Granted: this is just one poll, taken before much attention has been paid to the general election. But it shows Mourlock's basic problem. He's not a known quantity the same way that Lugar is. This gives Donnelly a much, much better chance of winning this seat than he would have if the Republicans nominate Lugar again. His odds aren't great, but given the stakes, I'd take Mourlock as an opponent over Lugar any time.
maxomai: dog (Default)
Right now I'm cracking up at the Tea Party telling themselves that Liberals just LURV Senator Dick Lugar (R-IN) over Koch Brothers puppet Richard Mourlock. For example:


"This is whats going to happen: Lugar will get pramried out and Mourdock will win the election. Because real americans will always vote for a genuine conservative, not some Soros-funded communist who hates america and supports islam!" - From Saturday hate mail-a-palooza: Hitching up with a Republican senator, of the front page of DailyKos

"This is all economics 101 for Republicans, but I guess they feel they can say anything to an audience of Democrats, as long as they serve the purpose of reelecting an 80-year old liberal." - from The Ultimate Treachery, a diary on RedState

"Lugar is a an Loony Left Liberal Lemming Drone." - Michael Gaines, from this FaceBook thread.

"Why should Hoosiers trust Lugar to lead the charge on health care? He has partnered with liberals to pass their plans, he has supported mandates, and he has cosponsored big entitlement spending. This year’s elections will be a referendum on ObamaCare, but unlike Richard Mourdock, Dick Lugar hasn’t even signed onto the Repeal ObamaCare pledge!" - Daniel Anderson, FreedomWorks for America


Part of the reason why this shit cracks me up is because I and many other liberals worked to defeat Dick Lugar in the past. In my own case we tried in 1994, and failed, because that's what happens when you try to defeat a well-liked Republican in a Republican wave year.

Part of the reason I'm guffawing at the gullible is that Lugar, like most of the rest of the Republican bloc, has been in lockstep opposition to everything President Obama has proposed from day one. It might make a difference to the Koch Brothers, who would prefer a controllable ally to an independent one, as to which Republican gets that seat, but it makes no difference to the Democrats, and little to Obama's agenda.

But, really, most of the reason why this cracks me up is that I and a lot of other partisan Democrats have been cheering on Mourlock over Lugar for months now. Why, you ask, would we do this? Here's why:

Donnelly (D) 29
Lugar (R) 42

Donnelly (D) 34
Mourlock (R) 28
Source: The Hill

Granted: this is just one poll, taken before much attention has been paid to the general election. But it shows Mourlock's basic problem. He's not a known quantity the same way that Lugar is. This gives Donnelly a much, much better chance of winning this seat than he would have if the Republicans nominate Lugar again. His odds aren't great, but given the stakes, I'd take Mourlock as an opponent over Lugar any time.
maxomai: dog (Default)
So, one week later, let's take a look at the tracking polls.

Rasmussen (three-day daily tracker):
Romney 47
Obama 44

Gallup (five-day daily tracker):
Obama 47
Romney 44

PPP (Weekly, released April 19th):
Obama 49
Romney 46
MOE 3.3

What we have here, ladies and gentlemen, is a race that is still too close to call. Democrats might be able to sigh in relief about Gallup and PPP, but Obama could very well be down again next week. It's too early to say for sure whether Romney's bounce is fading. What can be said for sure is that Obama's impressive leads of last month are no more.

Meanwhile, let's look at Arizona:

Romney 42
Obama 40
MOE 4.4
N=488 RV
Source

Yeah, it's an RV model with an MOE you can drive a truck through, but I wouldn't expect Obama to be anywhere near this close even with a poll this loose. If future polls confirm this, then Obama would do well to compete in Arizona. Romney would be hard-pressed to win the general election without this state.
maxomai: dog (Default)
So, one week later, let's take a look at the tracking polls.

Rasmussen (three-day daily tracker):
Romney 47
Obama 44

Gallup (five-day daily tracker):
Obama 47
Romney 44

PPP (Weekly, released April 19th):
Obama 49
Romney 46
MOE 3.3

What we have here, ladies and gentlemen, is a race that is still too close to call. Democrats might be able to sigh in relief about Gallup and PPP, but Obama could very well be down again next week. It's too early to say for sure whether Romney's bounce is fading. What can be said for sure is that Obama's impressive leads of last month are no more.

Meanwhile, let's look at Arizona:

Romney 42
Obama 40
MOE 4.4
N=488 RV
Source

Yeah, it's an RV model with an MOE you can drive a truck through, but I wouldn't expect Obama to be anywhere near this close even with a poll this loose. If future polls confirm this, then Obama would do well to compete in Arizona. Romney would be hard-pressed to win the general election without this state.
maxomai: dog (Default)
Gallup and Rasmussen have started their tracking polls, and the news is good for Mitt Romney.

Gallup:
Romney 47
Obama 45
MOE 3%

Rasmussen:
Romney 47
Obama 44
MOE 3%

Gallup uses a Registered Voter model at this stage, and Rasmussen uses a Likely Voter model. Rasmussen leans slightly Republican. It's safe to say that the candidates are neck-and-neck right now, with Romney holding the advantage. Both candidates are doing well with their parties, and both polls show Romney leading with independents right now.

This is in stark contrast to other polls that have Obama up by nine points. Those polls might lead an Obama supporter to complacency. The danger of complacency in this general election cannot be overstated, especially because there's a better than 50% chance that if the election were held today, Obama would be a one-term President.

DailyKos has their own take on the day's polls here.
maxomai: dog (Default)
Gallup and Rasmussen have started their tracking polls, and the news is good for Mitt Romney.

Gallup:
Romney 47
Obama 45
MOE 3%

Rasmussen:
Romney 47
Obama 44
MOE 3%

Gallup uses a Registered Voter model at this stage, and Rasmussen uses a Likely Voter model. Rasmussen leans slightly Republican. It's safe to say that the candidates are neck-and-neck right now, with Romney holding the advantage. Both candidates are doing well with their parties, and both polls show Romney leading with independents right now.

This is in stark contrast to other polls that have Obama up by nine points. Those polls might lead an Obama supporter to complacency. The danger of complacency in this general election cannot be overstated, especially because there's a better than 50% chance that if the election were held today, Obama would be a one-term President.

DailyKos has their own take on the day's polls here.
maxomai: dog (Default)
The polls I tend to rely upon the most are Rasmussen (lean R), PPP (lean D), and SurveyUSA.

All three tend to be very accurate, certainly according to Nate Silver's research. All three of these polls, also, use computerized phone calls (IVR).

I'm thinking this is not a coincidence; but I can't think of why IVR would be better than traditional live-interview polling. Maybe the live interview poll allows the live interviewer to present a bias? Maybe the live interview polls aren't consistently conducted (as per Murphy)? Perhaps it is indeed just a coincidence.

It would be interesting to see whether some other poll - say, Zogby - improves by switching to IVR. (In Zogby's case, it certainly cannot hurt.)
maxomai: dog (Default)
The polls I tend to rely upon the most are Rasmussen (lean R), PPP (lean D), and SurveyUSA.

All three tend to be very accurate, certainly according to Nate Silver's research. All three of these polls, also, use computerized phone calls (IVR).

I'm thinking this is not a coincidence; but I can't think of why IVR would be better than traditional live-interview polling. Maybe the live interview poll allows the live interviewer to present a bias? Maybe the live interview polls aren't consistently conducted (as per Murphy)? Perhaps it is indeed just a coincidence.

It would be interesting to see whether some other poll - say, Zogby - improves by switching to IVR. (In Zogby's case, it certainly cannot hurt.)
maxomai: (President Barack Hussein Obama)
(Sorry folks, LiveJournal hated these charts. Trying again with screenshots.)

Let's take a look at this aggregate of polls, presented by HuffPo. This is Obama vs. Romney when you include a bunch of Internet polls, including Zogby.

Photobucket

I frankly think that those Internet polls are complete crap, particularly Zogby - the selection bias is staggering. So, let's remove them. Then we get this chart:

Photobucket

There is good, bad, and ugly for Obama in this chart.

THE GOOD: with the exception of a short period in January, Obama has outpolled Romney in a head-to-head match-up for almost two years. That's been the case even through the Republican wave of 2010, and even though the President's approval ratings through that time haven't been that great. Part of the reason for this, frankly, is that even though Obama isn't as popular as he used to be, Romney is less popular right now. That's going to be hard for Romney to overcome.

THE BAD: Romney did tie with Obama in January, although that's now changed. He's lost that lead now, but it tells us that he can catch up.

THE UGLY: Obama is polling better against Romney now, in absolute numbers, than he has in two years ... and that number is 48.2%. It is, in other words, under 50%, and has been for two years. He's been the President now for three years. As hard as it's going to be for Romney to catch up, it's going to be just as hard, if not harder, for Obama to push over the 50% mark in this political environment. It's not necessary for him to push over the 50% mark -- if the election were held now he'd probably make up the difference with one-third of the undecided vote - and it's not sufficient either - as demonstrated by Florida in 2000. But it would sure help.
maxomai: (President Barack Hussein Obama)
(Sorry folks, LiveJournal hated these charts. Trying again with screenshots.)

Let's take a look at this aggregate of polls, presented by HuffPo. This is Obama vs. Romney when you include a bunch of Internet polls, including Zogby.

Photobucket

I frankly think that those Internet polls are complete crap, particularly Zogby - the selection bias is staggering. So, let's remove them. Then we get this chart:

Photobucket

There is good, bad, and ugly for Obama in this chart.

THE GOOD: with the exception of a short period in January, Obama has outpolled Romney in a head-to-head match-up for almost two years. That's been the case even through the Republican wave of 2010, and even though the President's approval ratings through that time haven't been that great. Part of the reason for this, frankly, is that even though Obama isn't as popular as he used to be, Romney is less popular right now. That's going to be hard for Romney to overcome.

THE BAD: Romney did tie with Obama in January, although that's now changed. He's lost that lead now, but it tells us that he can catch up.

THE UGLY: Obama is polling better against Romney now, in absolute numbers, than he has in two years ... and that number is 48.2%. It is, in other words, under 50%, and has been for two years. He's been the President now for three years. As hard as it's going to be for Romney to catch up, it's going to be just as hard, if not harder, for Obama to push over the 50% mark in this political environment. It's not necessary for him to push over the 50% mark -- if the election were held now he'd probably make up the difference with one-third of the undecided vote - and it's not sufficient either - as demonstrated by Florida in 2000. But it would sure help.

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