maxomai: dog (dog)
The Good: Today a Federal judge ruled that two of the worst provisions of the odious, stupid Texas abortion law are unconstitutional, and blocked them from being enforced. The blocked provisions are:

  • The requirement that providers have admitting privileges at a nearby hospital

  • The requirement that doctors follow the FDA's original label for an abortion-inducing drug, regardless of future findings


The Bad: Two more odious provisions of the same law were not part of this lawsuit and are still, for now, scheduled to go into effect next year. These are:

  • A ban on abortions after 20 weeks

  • A requirement that abortions be performed at ambulatory surgical centers - a requirement that only five out of 42 Texas clinics currently meet.


Nonetheless, chances are pretty good that those will be stricken down too, sometime next year.

It should be noted that the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists opposes all of these measures as medically without merit, so you can forget all that bible-fueled horseshit about this being about women's health.

The ugly: It should go without saying that Texas Attorney General Greg Abbot, a theocratic Republican who is running for Governor, will appeal this ruling to the full Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals. This is, in fact, the actual intention of this bill. The Texas GOP knows that this law is absolutely in violation of Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey. They're hoping that they can use this law to create a legal precedent to weaken Roe and PP protections. The odds are fair that the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals will give them such a precedent. (This same Court of Appeals recently upheld a ban on Texas funds to Planned Parenthood, for example.) With enough such precedents, and maybe a well-timed retirement on the Supreme Court, they could do away with Roe entirely.

That's the long game here, ladies and gents. And that's why I'm not exactly thrilled with the judge's decision. It's a good thing for women that this law has been blocked, of course, but the long game is what makes me nervous. We're going to need Democrats, or those who would caucus with the Democrats, in the White House and in the U. S. Senate, to put more abortion-friendly federal judges and Supreme Court Justices on the bench, and ensure that the theocrats continue to lose the long game.

This is chess, kids.
maxomai: dog (dog)
Al Jazeera America has the story:

Wendy Davis, the Texas state senator famous for staging a filibuster against sweeping abortion restrictions, announced Thursday that she will run for governor of the state.

"Texas is a place where we aim high and we take big risks," Davis told hundreds of cheering supporters at a rally outside Fort Worth. "We're builders, and doers, leaders, and dreamers. We love Texas, not only for how good it is, but for how great we know it can be."


There's a lot of enthusiasm for her campaign, due in no small part to her filibuster of an odious and stupid anti-abortion law. That same filibuster also generated a fair amount of campaign cash, to the tune of $1 million. It's almost certain that she'll win the Democratic primary.

And then, she'll be the underdog against the most likely GOP candidate, Gregg Abbot.

Texas Lyceum, Sept 6-20 (pdf)
Abbot 29
Davis 21
Don't know/NA 50
N=798 registered voters, MOE=3.47

Public Policy Polling, June 28-July 1 (pdf)
Abbot 48
Davis 40
Not sure 12
N=500, MOE=4.4

The numbers here aren't impossible for Davis. The election is thirteen months away, she's only down eight points, and she has plenty of time to make up the difference. But it's going to be a really tough fight.
maxomai: dog (dog)
The good news: Rick Perry is not going to run for Governor again.

The bad news: Progressive darling and TX State Sentaor Wendy Davis still loses against the other likely Republican candidate for Governor, Attorney General Greg Abbot.

PPP (July 2, 2013)
Abbot 48
Davis 40
MOE 4.4%

The Ugly News: According to that same PPP poll, Davis is the best candidate against Abbot that the Democrats have.

Abbot 48
Castro 34

Abbot 50
Parker 31

Abbot 48
White 36

If I were a lord high muckity muck of the Texas Democratic Party, I would put my full weight behind Wendy Davis. It's not going to turn Texas blue, or even put the Democrats back in charge of statewide offices or the legislature. But she's the emotional favorite, and as of the latest PPP poll, she's the real, best chance they have to make a dent.
maxomai: dog (dog)
The progressive bloggosphere, not to mention the progressive straight media outlets like MSNBC, are positively agog about pro-choice heroine Wendy Davis after last week's filibuster of a contentious anti-abortion law. Thus we have headlines like:

This is why Wendy Davis will be the next Texas governor and maybe more

And:

Pop Culture’s Best Tributes to Badass State Senator Wendy Davis

Not to mention all the Amazon reviews of her shoes.

Which leads one to expect that Wendy Davis will run for Governor of Texas, and probably, in a lot of progressives, that Wendy Davis will be the next Governor of Texas, a wish that I share as well.

Unfortunately, the polls aren't as kind to Senator Davis:

PPP (TX-GOV) (PDF):

Davis 39%
Perry 52%
N=500
MOE=4.4%

This poll was released just yesterday (7/2). The poll before that was released in January, and that poll was much better for Davis, who then trailed Perry by a mere six points, 47-41.

As PPP points out, Davis's standing and name recognition among Texas voters has improved remarkably since January. The filibuster undoubtedly has a lot to do with that improvement. However, Texas is still a deep red state with a Republican majority in the electorate, and Perry has improved his standing with the Republican base by hammering on social issues.

Democrats are hoping that what happened in Texas last week is the beginning of the Democratic Party's resurgence in that state. That it may well be, and the partisan in me hopes that it's true. But the polling suggests that they have a long, long way to go before things turn around.

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