#Obama and #Romney still neck-and-neck - nationally, and in #Arizona.

[maxomai]

So, one week later, let's take a look at the tracking polls.

Rasmussen (three-day daily tracker):
Romney 47
Obama 44

Gallup (five-day daily tracker):
Obama 47
Romney 44

PPP (Weekly, released April 19th):
Obama 49
Romney 46
MOE 3.3

What we have here, ladies and gentlemen, is a race that is still too close to call. Democrats might be able to sigh in relief about Gallup and PPP, but Obama could very well be down again next week. It's too early to say for sure whether Romney's bounce is fading. What can be said for sure is that Obama's impressive leads of last month are no more.

Meanwhile, let's look at Arizona:

Romney 42
Obama 40
MOE 4.4
N=488 RV
Source

Yeah, it's an RV model with an MOE you can drive a truck through, but I wouldn't expect Obama to be anywhere near this close even with a poll this loose. If future polls confirm this, then Obama would do well to compete in Arizona. Romney would be hard-pressed to win the general election without this state.

Comments

[arkham4269.livejournal.com]

Well I for one am not going to panic. Considering how poorly Romney did against people in his own party, I doubt he's going to sway many Dems to his side considering his is the epitome of what the 99% movement is against.

[maxomai.livejournal.com]

Every poll shows Obama and Mittens solidifying their own base. They're also starting to show a swing among independents back towards Obama. The question is whether Obama can crank his progressive, minority and white single woman base enough to make up for Mittens cranking his conservative, white male and married white female base. Just based on what I'm seeing right now, this election is going to be about GOTV. Which means more manufactured outrage. Yeah, yeah, I know.