#Romney and #Obama neck-and-neck in Rasmussen & Gallup tracking polls

[maxomai]

Gallup and Rasmussen have started their tracking polls, and the news is good for Mitt Romney.

Gallup:
Romney 47
Obama 45
MOE 3%

Rasmussen:
Romney 47
Obama 44
MOE 3%

Gallup uses a Registered Voter model at this stage, and Rasmussen uses a Likely Voter model. Rasmussen leans slightly Republican. It's safe to say that the candidates are neck-and-neck right now, with Romney holding the advantage. Both candidates are doing well with their parties, and both polls show Romney leading with independents right now.

This is in stark contrast to other polls that have Obama up by nine points. Those polls might lead an Obama supporter to complacency. The danger of complacency in this general election cannot be overstated, especially because there's a better than 50% chance that if the election were held today, Obama would be a one-term President.

DailyKos has their own take on the day's polls here.

Comments

The Poll illusion

[arkham4269.livejournal.com]

I commented on this on FB this morning after seeing this poll on the local Fauz Newz affiliate.

My first reaction is: Is Gallop only polling white men over the age of 40 (and probably in the South)?

I agree that Dems need not be complacent but I have a really hard time see Romney getting anywhere when he and the rest of the GOP are getting a 14-18 point shellacking by women of all ages and race. Considering they made up 53% of the vote in 2008, I just can't see Romney as a viable contender against Obama. You cannot win when you've pissed off the gender who has the most people (51% to 49%) and the one who vote more.

This isn't even going with the fact that the GOP seems to have gone out of their way (AGAIN) to piss off the Latino vote. Considering that is one of the fastest growing demographics in this country, again I have trouble thinking Romney has a chance.

Again, I know it's not over till it's over, but even DailyKos has pointed out that all the negative money the GOP and Super-PACs have spent already have had little effect relative to the cost. People already like and/or hate Obama. Yet he won comfortably in 2008. Romney, however, has done little to sell himself to the Dems and as DailyKos pointed out the other day, Romney is the least liked GOP president in a long time, even beating out George Bush the Elder.

I mean he had to carpet-bomb states with money to defeat a guy in his own party and we are supposed to believe he is a credible threat to Obama? This when his own party continues their war on women, unions, the middle class, the poor and our health care?

As I said on FB, I think a lot of these polls are just ways the Media is trying to make this look like an actual contest when it's probably going to be a blow-out. I mean right up to the election, there were plenty of people and news outlets commenting about how McCain/Palin could pull it off...only to see them crushed.

I'm thinking we're going to see a repeat of this but worse. Another indication how ad revenue contaminates our news process in this country.

Re: The Poll illusion

[paradoxosalpha.livejournal.com]

I hope you're right. But I'll never forget how sure I was that Gore would beat Bush in 2000, until I woke up the day after the election and it still hadn't been decided.