Finding God in a Dog

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor lost his primary last night in a stunning upset that is guaranteed, barring nuclear war, to be the story of the week. He is resigning as House Majority Leader, and California Congressman Kevin McCarthy is running to replace him.

Here are my observations on the matter:

1. Cantor was simply out-hustled. Cantor was a good fit for his district, but Brat sold himself to GOP primary voters as a better, more conservative fit, and he seized every opportunity to do it. Brat ran TV ads outlining his anti-immigration stance, where Cantor pulled his punches to avoid alienating Hispanic voters nationwide. Brat reached out to pro-gun groups such as Gun Owners of America, and Cantor didn't even bother to answer their candidate surveys. Needless to say, those groups campaigned for Brat.


2. Gerrymandering bit Cantor in the ass. Primary voters, including myself, are ideologues, but they're also partisan. Brat wouldn't have been able to sell himself as a better fit if primary voters thought there was a reasonable chance that he'd lose to the Democratic candidate. Cantor's district is so deep-red (R+10) that even a completely unprepared upstart is likely to beat a well-funded Democrat. (Note: this isn't a prediction of how the general election will go. There's been no polling of Brat vs. Trammell yet. Until those numbers show up, take any prediction with a grain of salt.)


3. To the extent that this shakes up the Washington GOP establishment, it does so by moving that establishment to the left. The Tea Party just lost its most senior member of the House, and John Boehner just lost his chief GOP opponent for Speaker of the House. This gives Boehner a lot more room to maneuver going forward. It will be interesting to see how he uses that room.


4. On the other hand, this doesn't change the Democrats' chances to win control of the House by much. Those chances are still dismal in 2014, somewhat better in 2016, and really not great at all unless the Democrats take control of most of the state legislatures in 2018 and 2020.


5. Cantor's loss demonstrates the importance of having a good pollster on his side. He thought he was going to win by 2-to-1. If he knew the race was this close, Cantor would have pulled out the plugs to get out the vote. He didn't, and it cost him.

Rasmussen's been acting funny of late, but a lot of people still trust this lean-R poll. For my money, lean-D PPP is a bit better once you account for the bias. But Rasmussen seems to hold more sway with conservative audiences. And that is why their latest poll of Kentucky should scare the shit out of Mitch McConnell.


500 Kentucky LVs polled January 29-30 2014

McConnell (R) 42
Grimes (D) 42

The rest of the poll is behind a paywall, but Rasmussen claims that they show McConnell's primary opponent, Matt Bevin, beating Grimes by six points.

Rasmussen has a Republican bias in their likely voter model — meaning, they count more Republicans as likely voters than are actually likely to show up. This cuts two ways here. On the one hand, if exaggerated GOP turnout leads to a McConnell tie, then Grimes is probably a few points ahead of him. On the other hand, an exaggerated Republican electorate might prefer a more conservative candidate like Bevin over McConnell, but that means that Bevin will have an easier time beating Grimes if Rasmussen's LV model is correct. And, it bears mentioning, if Bevin doesn't make some stupid, inane remark that makes him the next Todd Akin. I would bet money that one of those two conditions will fail.

Nonetheless, this poll makes the case that McConnell is a weaker candidate than Bevin, and does so in a way that's compelling to McConnell's base. Between this and probably trailing Grimes, this poll has to sting at McConnell HQ this morning.

It's Friday, and for most of us the work day is over, either just so or hours ago. Which means that we have time to sit back, relax, visit with friends, and ask ourselves that important question - who lost the week?

For my part, I believe that the Massachusetts Republican Party lost the week. I blogged about this earlier, but the Reader's Digest edition is that Scott Brown dropped out of the special election to take the Senate seat vacated by John Kerry. Before that decision, PPP had him as the front runner. Afterwards, the Republicans basically have nobody that can win that seat. Ed Markey will be the next Senator from Massachusetts if he can get his act together.

Honorable (yes, honorable mention) goes to those of us hoping for universal background checks. I believe the NRA signaled in their Senate testimony that they are going to score the vote for such background checks. If so, I think this is a stupid and pathetic move on the part of the NRA - coming out in support of universal background checks would have done something to salvage their image while contributing favorably to the problem of black market handguns in the inner cities. Unfortunately, they don't seem to agree, and so now the GOP faces a choice. They can buck the NRA and suffer the short term consequences in the next round of primaries, or stick with the NRA and suffer the long term consequences in the next few general elections. I still retain some hope that they'll do the right thing and not score universal background checks, but it's a thin hope right now.

A strong case can be made that everyone - and I mean everyone in the world - lost this week after Al Qaeda torched an ancient library in Timbuktu destroying thousands of priceless books and scrolls going back to the 13th Century. Because, you know, they have to destroy Islam in order to save it.

Dishonorable mention goes to Elect A New Congress SuperPAC, which ate the WRONG browniesposted a bizarre rant calling on people to boycott Beyonce and "this Jay-Z fellow" during their Super Bowl half time show, which said SuperPAC promises will be, and I quote, "in praise and celebration of the modern criminal police state," and, "completely at odds with liberty and in complete odds with me." This is in stark contrast to the previous year's Halftime show, which the SuperPAC founder called the "Satanic/Illuminati Super Bowl Half-Time Show.” I tuned in expecting just that, and was sorely disappointed.

Dishonorable mention also goes to Manti Te'o and Taylor Swift, jointly, for making me wonder whose love life is worse.

Another dishonorable mention goes to the People of New Jersey. As if they didn't suffer enough from Chris Christie, Hurrican Sandy, and the entire cast of the Jersey Shore, now they have to suffer one of the worst indignities of all - Geraldo Rivera running for Senate. If Jersey were a person, their autobiography would be the Book of Job.

But now I leave it to you, dear readers. Who do you think lost the week?

It's Friday, and for most of us the work day is over, either just so or hours ago. Which means that we have time to sit back, relax, visit with friends, and ask ourselves that important question - who lost the week?

For my part, I believe that the Massachusetts Republican Party lost the week. I blogged about this earlier, but the Reader's Digest edition is that Scott Brown dropped out of the special election to take the Senate seat vacated by John Kerry. Before that decision, PPP had him as the front runner. Afterwards, the Republicans basically have nobody that can win that seat. Ed Markey will be the next Senator from Massachusetts if he can get his act together.

Honorable (yes, honorable mention) goes to those of us hoping for universal background checks. I believe the NRA signaled in their Senate testimony that they are going to score the vote for such background checks. If so, I think this is a stupid and pathetic move on the part of the NRA - coming out in support of universal background checks would have done something to salvage their image while contributing favorably to the problem of black market handguns in the inner cities. Unfortunately, they don't seem to agree, and so now the GOP faces a choice. They can buck the NRA and suffer the short term consequences in the next round of primaries, or stick with the NRA and suffer the long term consequences in the next few general elections. I still retain some hope that they'll do the right thing and not score universal background checks, but it's a thin hope right now.

A strong case can be made that everyone - and I mean everyone in the world - lost this week after Al Qaeda torched an ancient library in Timbuktu destroying thousands of priceless books and scrolls going back to the 13th Century. Because, you know, they have to destroy Islam in order to save it.

Dishonorable mention goes to Elect A New Congress SuperPAC, which ate the WRONG browniesposted a bizarre rant calling on people to boycott Beyonce and "this Jay-Z fellow" during their Super Bowl half time show, which said SuperPAC promises will be, and I quote, "in praise and celebration of the modern criminal police state," and, "completely at odds with liberty and in complete odds with me." This is in stark contrast to the previous year's Halftime show, which the SuperPAC founder called the "Satanic/Illuminati Super Bowl Half-Time Show.” I tuned in expecting just that, and was sorely disappointed.

Dishonorable mention also goes to Manti Te'o and Taylor Swift, jointly, for making me wonder whose love life is worse.

Another dishonorable mention goes to the People of New Jersey. As if they didn't suffer enough from Chris Christie, Hurrican Sandy, and the entire cast of the Jersey Shore, now they have to suffer one of the worst indignities of all - Geraldo Rivera running for Senate. If Jersey were a person, their autobiography would be the Book of Job.

But now I leave it to you, dear readers. Who do you think lost the week?

John Kerry is our new Secretary of State, and Governor Patrick has picked his interim replacement (Mo Cowan). The actual replacement for John Kerry needs to be chosen in a special election, and that will happen in June.

I said last month that Scott Brown, whom Elizabeth Warren defeated in November, would win this special election. PPP confirms that, if he runs, he would be the front runner.

MA-SEN
N = 763

Brown (R) 48
Markey (D) 45

Brown (R) 48
Lynch (D) 38


Markey is the stronger Democrat in this race, and he could still win with a sufficient effort. But Brown still has the edge.

In fact, I'd say that the most important factor right now in whether Brown is the next non-interim Senator from Massachusetts ... is whether he runs for Governor. And that Governor's race must look tempting.

MA-GOV
N = 763

Brown (R) 49
Berwick (D) 32

Brown (R) 48
Grossman (D) 37

Brown (R) 49
Ortiz (D) 32

The Governor's race, by the way, is not until November 2014. Meanwhile, the Senate race is in five months .. and then he has to run for that same Senate seat again in November 2014. To me, if I trust PPP, this decision is a no-brainer; but if I really, really want to be in the Senate....