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New OR-GOV Poll - take with salt #ORGOV
Jul. 25th, 2018 06:35 pmConservative paper The Oregonian has a new poll from Gravis Marketing, of the Oregon Governor's race.
Brown (D) 45
Buhler (R) 45
MOE 3.5
Let's look at the good, bad, and ugly of this poll.
THE BAD Gravis Marketing does not have a reputation for being that accurate - FiveThirtyEight.com gives them a C+ rating. Also, the voter breakdown in this poll leans towards older voters, which might not accurately reflect the likely voters in the upcoming election.
THE GOOD Other than the baselines, the poll has pretty good results for Democrats overall: voters oppose the Trump agenda, are more likely to vote for Democrats in Congressional elections, and oppose a ballot measure that would restrict abortion rights in Oregon.
THE UGLY This poll is consistent with other polls that have Governor Brown under 50%. Not only does this poll have Brown and Buhler tied, but it has voters slightly favoring Measure 105, a ballot measure to rescind Oregon's Sanctuary State law. Rescinding that measure wouldn't just affect immigrants' rights in Oregon, but would also free more police forces to engage in racial profiling.
Also, FiveThirtyEight gives Gravis a slight Democratic lean. The numbers for Brown, and for the anti-105 vote, could be worse than they appear.
Brown (D) 45
Buhler (R) 45
MOE 3.5
Let's look at the good, bad, and ugly of this poll.
THE BAD Gravis Marketing does not have a reputation for being that accurate - FiveThirtyEight.com gives them a C+ rating. Also, the voter breakdown in this poll leans towards older voters, which might not accurately reflect the likely voters in the upcoming election.
THE GOOD Other than the baselines, the poll has pretty good results for Democrats overall: voters oppose the Trump agenda, are more likely to vote for Democrats in Congressional elections, and oppose a ballot measure that would restrict abortion rights in Oregon.
THE UGLY This poll is consistent with other polls that have Governor Brown under 50%. Not only does this poll have Brown and Buhler tied, but it has voters slightly favoring Measure 105, a ballot measure to rescind Oregon's Sanctuary State law. Rescinding that measure wouldn't just affect immigrants' rights in Oregon, but would also free more police forces to engage in racial profiling.
Also, FiveThirtyEight gives Gravis a slight Democratic lean. The numbers for Brown, and for the anti-105 vote, could be worse than they appear.
