#Obama is the front-runner, part three.
Feb. 3rd, 2012 07:59 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
maxomai(Sorry folks, LiveJournal hated these charts. Trying again with screenshots.)
Let's take a look at this aggregate of polls, presented by HuffPo. This is Obama vs. Romney when you include a bunch of Internet polls, including Zogby.
I frankly think that those Internet polls are complete crap, particularly Zogby - the selection bias is staggering. So, let's remove them. Then we get this chart:
There is good, bad, and ugly for Obama in this chart.
THE GOOD: with the exception of a short period in January, Obama has outpolled Romney in a head-to-head match-up for almost two years. That's been the case even through the Republican wave of 2010, and even though the President's approval ratings through that time haven't been that great. Part of the reason for this, frankly, is that even though Obama isn't as popular as he used to be, Romney is less popular right now. That's going to be hard for Romney to overcome.
THE BAD: Romney did tie with Obama in January, although that's now changed. He's lost that lead now, but it tells us that he can catch up.
THE UGLY: Obama is polling better against Romney now, in absolute numbers, than he has in two years ... and that number is 48.2%. It is, in other words, under 50%, and has been for two years. He's been the President now for three years. As hard as it's going to be for Romney to catch up, it's going to be just as hard, if not harder, for Obama to push over the 50% mark in this political environment. It's not necessary for him to push over the 50% mark -- if the election were held now he'd probably make up the difference with one-third of the undecided vote - and it's not sufficient either - as demonstrated by Florida in 2000. But it would sure help.
Let's take a look at this aggregate of polls, presented by HuffPo. This is Obama vs. Romney when you include a bunch of Internet polls, including Zogby.
I frankly think that those Internet polls are complete crap, particularly Zogby - the selection bias is staggering. So, let's remove them. Then we get this chart:
There is good, bad, and ugly for Obama in this chart.
THE GOOD: with the exception of a short period in January, Obama has outpolled Romney in a head-to-head match-up for almost two years. That's been the case even through the Republican wave of 2010, and even though the President's approval ratings through that time haven't been that great. Part of the reason for this, frankly, is that even though Obama isn't as popular as he used to be, Romney is less popular right now. That's going to be hard for Romney to overcome.
THE BAD: Romney did tie with Obama in January, although that's now changed. He's lost that lead now, but it tells us that he can catch up.
THE UGLY: Obama is polling better against Romney now, in absolute numbers, than he has in two years ... and that number is 48.2%. It is, in other words, under 50%, and has been for two years. He's been the President now for three years. As hard as it's going to be for Romney to catch up, it's going to be just as hard, if not harder, for Obama to push over the 50% mark in this political environment. It's not necessary for him to push over the 50% mark -- if the election were held now he'd probably make up the difference with one-third of the undecided vote - and it's not sufficient either - as demonstrated by Florida in 2000. But it would sure help.
