2018 Predictions Scorecard
Dec. 31st, 2018 06:27 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
maxomaiHello everyone.
(Taps mic)
Is this thing still on? Yes? Good! And hello all the refugees from Tumblr!
A year ago I made some predictions about what I thought would happen in 2018. Unlike most political prognosticators, I take the time to go back and grade myself on how I did, and I have for (checks calendar) sixteen years now.
Wow. Sixteen!
So what were my 2018 predictions, and how did I do? Good question........first, let's look at the predictions.
Ooof...yeah, lots of swing-and-a-miss there. Let's evaluate.
There will be a war in Eastern Europe - Although this didn't happen this year, the weakening of the EU and of NATO makes this increasingly likely, particularly since Hungary's Orban hasn't given up on some their old, pre-WWII claims on their neighbors' territories. One should not ignore, either, the increasing tensions on the Russia-Ukraine border.
Housing prices will grow at their slowest rate since 2010 - Adjusted for inflation, housing prices this year climbed 2.75%, well above the 1.32% they increased in 2011.
Democrats will win enough seats to control the US House and US Senate in 2019. - Democrats managed to do this in the House, handily, but actually lost seats in the Senate. This prediction was made in the heady days after the Alabama special election, which put a Democrat in the Senate from Alabama for the first time in decades. We had a real shot this year at winning control of the Senate back. But, it was a small shot, and it did not pan out.
Democrats will flip at least six (6) governor's seats and six (6) state legislatures in 2018. Democrats flipped six Governor's seats that I expected (Illinois, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Wisconsin), and one I absolutely did not (Kansas). The Republicans only gained one Governor seat, in Alaska, which was previously held by an independent. Democrats did manage to flip six state legislative chambers in 2018, but that's not the same as six entire legislatures.
SCOTUS will rule in both Gill v. Whitford and Benisek v. Lamone that excessive gerrymandering violates the Equal Protection clause of the Constitution. - In what has to be the biggest disappointment of the year for me, SCOTUS voted 9-0 that the plaintiffs - for our purposes, the good guys - failed to demonstrate standing. They also upheld the preliminary injuction in Benisek, basically allowing Maryland's gerrymandering to continue. Between this and other ugly developments this year, most notably the Kavanaugh hearings, it's become clear that the left's best line of defense against Trumpian authoritarianism, the courts, have crumbled. It's now up the House of Representatives and to the States.
The Euroskeptic Right will win the March elections in Italy, further weakening the EU. - This didn't quite happen. The Right made gains, but there's the Right and the Euroskeptic Right, and in 2018, neither made enough gains to rule outright. Italy finished their 2018 elections with a hung parliament. Which, come to think of it, is pretty typically Italian.
The Racist Right will run out of steam while the Socialist Left gains momentum. I don't think we've seen enough evidence of this to call it good.
The Chicago Cubs will, once more, return to postseason baseball. And they did, albeit for one game only.
Oklahoma will win the College Football Bowl Series Championship. As usual, Alabama took the win.
My Predictions for 2019 are coming up next. Stay tuned!
(Taps mic)
Is this thing still on? Yes? Good! And hello all the refugees from Tumblr!
A year ago I made some predictions about what I thought would happen in 2018. Unlike most political prognosticators, I take the time to go back and grade myself on how I did, and I have for (checks calendar) sixteen years now.
Wow. Sixteen!
So what were my 2018 predictions, and how did I do? Good question........first, let's look at the predictions.
- There will be a war in Eastern Europe.
- Housing prices will grow at their slowest rate since 2010.
- Democrats will win enough seats to control the US House and US Senate in 2019.
- Democrats will flip at least six (6) governor's seats and six (6) state legislatures in 2018.
- SCOTUS will rule in both Gill v. Whitford and Benisek v. Lamone that excessive gerrymandering violates the Equal Protection clause of the Constitution.
- The Euroskeptic Right will win the March elections in Italy, further weakening the EU.
- The Racist Right will run out of steam while the Socialist Left gains momentum.
- The Chicago Cubs will, once more, return to postseason baseball.
- Oklahoma will win the College Football Bowl Series Championship.
Ooof...yeah, lots of swing-and-a-miss there. Let's evaluate.
There will be a war in Eastern Europe - Although this didn't happen this year, the weakening of the EU and of NATO makes this increasingly likely, particularly since Hungary's Orban hasn't given up on some their old, pre-WWII claims on their neighbors' territories. One should not ignore, either, the increasing tensions on the Russia-Ukraine border.
Housing prices will grow at their slowest rate since 2010 - Adjusted for inflation, housing prices this year climbed 2.75%, well above the 1.32% they increased in 2011.
Democrats will win enough seats to control the US House and US Senate in 2019. - Democrats managed to do this in the House, handily, but actually lost seats in the Senate. This prediction was made in the heady days after the Alabama special election, which put a Democrat in the Senate from Alabama for the first time in decades. We had a real shot this year at winning control of the Senate back. But, it was a small shot, and it did not pan out.
Democrats will flip at least six (6) governor's seats and six (6) state legislatures in 2018. Democrats flipped six Governor's seats that I expected (Illinois, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Wisconsin), and one I absolutely did not (Kansas). The Republicans only gained one Governor seat, in Alaska, which was previously held by an independent. Democrats did manage to flip six state legislative chambers in 2018, but that's not the same as six entire legislatures.
SCOTUS will rule in both Gill v. Whitford and Benisek v. Lamone that excessive gerrymandering violates the Equal Protection clause of the Constitution. - In what has to be the biggest disappointment of the year for me, SCOTUS voted 9-0 that the plaintiffs - for our purposes, the good guys - failed to demonstrate standing. They also upheld the preliminary injuction in Benisek, basically allowing Maryland's gerrymandering to continue. Between this and other ugly developments this year, most notably the Kavanaugh hearings, it's become clear that the left's best line of defense against Trumpian authoritarianism, the courts, have crumbled. It's now up the House of Representatives and to the States.
The Euroskeptic Right will win the March elections in Italy, further weakening the EU. - This didn't quite happen. The Right made gains, but there's the Right and the Euroskeptic Right, and in 2018, neither made enough gains to rule outright. Italy finished their 2018 elections with a hung parliament. Which, come to think of it, is pretty typically Italian.
The Racist Right will run out of steam while the Socialist Left gains momentum. I don't think we've seen enough evidence of this to call it good.
The Chicago Cubs will, once more, return to postseason baseball. And they did, albeit for one game only.
Oklahoma will win the College Football Bowl Series Championship. As usual, Alabama took the win.
My Predictions for 2019 are coming up next. Stay tuned!
