Why I'm now more pessimistic about the debt ceiling deal

[maxomai]

Earlier I said that the Boehner had a choice between:

1. Either throwing the Tea Party under the bus and dealing with the electoral consequences,


2. Or ruining the economy, the nation's credit, and more permanently, our status as the top global power.

It looks like I underestimated the electoral consequences:

@gopleader If the #GOP will not stand up for real Americans and fight #Obamacare, it is time for a new party that will. #teaparty #tcot #war

— Tea Party Nation (@teapartynation) October 14, 2013

This could be an existential threat to the Republican party, because:

Overall, they make up a minority (37%) of all Republicans and Republican-leaning independents nationally. Yet this group is more likely than other GOP voters to say they always vote in primary elections; as a result they make up about half of the Republican primary electorate (49%).

If the Tea Party makes good on this threat, the likely consequence is a third party that works as a spoiler in future elections, much like the Green Party in the Nothing Decade, or the Harold Washington Party in Chicago in the late 1980s and early 1990s. On the other hand, in the unlikely case that the Tea Party does what the Greens haven't - slowly build a base of power with local and Congressional races - we could see the GOP go the way of the Whigs.

I think the Republicans would rather default than face the demise of their party.

Comments

[arkham4269.livejournal.com]

The Tea Party's sad devotion to hokey religions and mystical economics disturbs me

[heron61.livejournal.com]

That's worrisome. However, given that the tea-baggers are clearly not the party of business, and thus won't get Chamber of Commerce funding, another option is initial losses to Democrats followed by a ruthless purge in the Republican party. The tea-baggers simply wouldn't have the same access to funds as a GOP with far fewer tea-bagger candidates. I'm seeing the current problem as being more about Boehner than in any long or medium term sense the party itself. OTOH, that still doesn't mean he won't try something economy destroying. I'm just hoping (and also expecting) various moderate Republicans to revolt quite soon, and bring things to a vote w/o him.

[dondodson.livejournal.com]

Would Obama rather default than live under the same Obamacare law he is forcing on the rest of us?

[heron61.livejournal.com]

A far more accurate framing is would Obama rather default than give into GOP blackmail that if successful would be used from now on to force the President and the Senate to go along with their agenda. That would be a monumentally idiotic decision. Any party willing to use debt ceiling blackmail is fairly clearly no longer operating in the best interests of the nation.

[dondodson.livejournal.com]

Congress has the sole authority to authorize borrowing and spending of money. It is not blackmail to refuse to give Obama unlimited credit and a blank check for spending. To do that would in essence be handing the power of the Legislative Branch over to the Executive Branch, which would be a monumentally idiotic decision. It is Obama's threat of default which is blackmail in this case, and is creating a Constitutional crisis and threatening the welfare of the nation.

[paradoxosalpha.livejournal.com]

Alas, Republicans have an impressive track record of loyalty to party over country.