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Everyone seems to think we're near a deal that will ultimately lead to a Republican surrender on the debt ceiling and the shutdown.

Well, not so fast.

Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX), in his new role as Ron Paul's prophet, is trying to rally Tea Party support against a deal. And it seems to be working.

This means that John Boehner has a choice.

He can either throw the Tea Party caucus under the bus and deal with the electoral consequences (2) (3); OR, he can validate Chinese FUD about American treasury bills, causing a recession in the short term and effectively ending our role as the indispensable economic and military hyperpower, forever.

EDIT: Looks like he chose validating Chinese FUD. The White House, naturally, has rejected his deal.

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