Wendy Davis and Wishful Thinking
Jul. 3rd, 2013 05:55 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
maxomaiThe progressive bloggosphere, not to mention the progressive straight media outlets like MSNBC, are positively agog about pro-choice heroine Wendy Davis after last week's filibuster of a contentious anti-abortion law. Thus we have headlines like:
This is why Wendy Davis will be the next Texas governor and maybe more
And:
Pop Culture’s Best Tributes to Badass State Senator Wendy Davis
Not to mention all the Amazon reviews of her shoes.
Which leads one to expect that Wendy Davis will run for Governor of Texas, and probably, in a lot of progressives, that Wendy Davis will be the next Governor of Texas, a wish that I share as well.
Unfortunately, the polls aren't as kind to Senator Davis:
PPP (TX-GOV) (PDF):
Davis 39%
Perry 52%
N=500
MOE=4.4%
This poll was released just yesterday (7/2). The poll before that was released in January, and that poll was much better for Davis, who then trailed Perry by a mere six points, 47-41.
As PPP points out, Davis's standing and name recognition among Texas voters has improved remarkably since January. The filibuster undoubtedly has a lot to do with that improvement. However, Texas is still a deep red state with a Republican majority in the electorate, and Perry has improved his standing with the Republican base by hammering on social issues.
Democrats are hoping that what happened in Texas last week is the beginning of the Democratic Party's resurgence in that state. That it may well be, and the partisan in me hopes that it's true. But the polling suggests that they have a long, long way to go before things turn around.
This is why Wendy Davis will be the next Texas governor and maybe more
And:
Pop Culture’s Best Tributes to Badass State Senator Wendy Davis
Not to mention all the Amazon reviews of her shoes.
Which leads one to expect that Wendy Davis will run for Governor of Texas, and probably, in a lot of progressives, that Wendy Davis will be the next Governor of Texas, a wish that I share as well.
Unfortunately, the polls aren't as kind to Senator Davis:
PPP (TX-GOV) (PDF):
Davis 39%
Perry 52%
N=500
MOE=4.4%
This poll was released just yesterday (7/2). The poll before that was released in January, and that poll was much better for Davis, who then trailed Perry by a mere six points, 47-41.
As PPP points out, Davis's standing and name recognition among Texas voters has improved remarkably since January. The filibuster undoubtedly has a lot to do with that improvement. However, Texas is still a deep red state with a Republican majority in the electorate, and Perry has improved his standing with the Republican base by hammering on social issues.
Democrats are hoping that what happened in Texas last week is the beginning of the Democratic Party's resurgence in that state. That it may well be, and the partisan in me hopes that it's true. But the polling suggests that they have a long, long way to go before things turn around.
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Date: 2013-07-04 04:27 am (UTC)However, there are rumblings that Rick Perry might not run for another term. That might leave Lt Gov. David Dewhurst as the Republican nominee. Dewhurst would probably be a lot easier to beat than Perry. Dewhurst made an ass of himself in last year's Senate primary by running an outrageously negative campaign against conservative rock star Ted Cruz, and now that people are seeing how false his accusations about Cruz were, they are not quick to forgive him for it. Add to that the fact that he clearly didn't have a game plan in the Senate the other night, and he looks very beatable.