Predictions Update

[maxomai]

It's a little more than five months since I made my predictions for 2013. So far, it's looking bleak for my correct prediction rate, but I have some hope yet.

To refresh your memories, my predictions for 2013 are as follows:

1. Meaningful action on the "fiscal cliff" won't happen until February at least


2. The credit rating of the United States Government will take another hit


3. No federal assault weapons ban will pass


4. Assad will lose the Syrian civil war, but only after much blood


5. Scott Brown will win the special election to fill John Kerry's Senate seat


6. Obamacare will dominate the second half of 2013 politics


7. Inflation will remain below 10%


8. The Oregon Ducks will win the Fiesta Bowl

1. Meaningful action on the "fiscal cliff" won't happen until February at least


It turned out that a resolution for the "fiscal cliff" was quickly found. That's the good news. The bad news is that Congress decided to go ahead and let the Sword of Damocles that hung over their heads - AKA Sequestration - fall and gore them, because reaching a better budget deal is next to impossible in Washington now. WRONG


2. The credit rating of the United States Government will take another hit


So far, this has not happened; but there's still plenty of time. Leaning Right.


3. No federal assault weapons ban will pass


The closest we came was an amendment to a universal background check bill. That amendment failed 40-60. The issue is effectively DOA on a federal level. However, various states are still considering their own proposals. In the Northeast, Colorado, and California, proposals have already passed. RIGHT.


4. Assad will lose the Syrian civil war, but only after much blood


It's looking increasingly like everyone expects for Assad to hang on. The blood part is still valid. Leaning Wrong.


5. Scott Brown will win the special election to fill John Kerry's Senate seat


Scott Brown decided to bow out, effectively handing this seat to Ed Markey. WRONG.


6. Obamacare will dominate the second half of 2013 politics


TBD, although I now suspect that the issue the GOP will instead concentrate on Benghazi, with an eye towards 2016. Leaning Wrong.


7. Inflation will remain below 10%


So far, so good. Solid Right.


8. The Oregon Ducks will win the Fiesta Bowl


RIGHT