2018 Predictions Scorecard

Hello everyone.

(Taps mic)

Is this thing still on? Yes? Good! And hello all the refugees from Tumblr!

A year ago I made some predictions about what I thought would happen in 2018. Unlike most political prognosticators, I take the time to go back and grade myself on how I did, and I have for (checks calendar) sixteen years now.

Wow. Sixteen!

"The Crests - Sixteen Candles" (Watch on YouTube)

So what were my 2018 predictions, and how did I do? Good question........first, let's look at the predictions.

• There will be a war in Eastern Europe.


• Housing prices will grow at their slowest rate since 2010.


• Democrats will win enough seats to control the US House and US Senate in 2019.


• Democrats will flip at least six (6) governor's seats and six (6) state legislatures in 2018.


• SCOTUS will rule in both Gill v. Whitford and Benisek v. Lamone that excessive gerrymandering violates the Equal Protection clause of the Constitution.


• The Euroskeptic Right will win the March elections in Italy, further weakening the EU.


• The Racist Right will run out of steam while the Socialist Left gains momentum.


• The Chicago Cubs will, once more, return to postseason baseball.


• Oklahoma will win the College Football Bowl Series Championship.

Ooof...yeah, lots of swing-and-a-miss there. Let's evaluate.

( Read more... )

My predictions for 2019.

And now, my predictions for 2019. These are somewhat more grim than they have been in previous years, and for good reason. They are:

1. The Mueller investigation, which is apparently focused on collusion between the Trump campaign and the Russians, will turn up something even worse.


2. Turkish forces will rout the Kurdish forces in Eastern Syria, causing yet another humanitarian crisis.


3. It will come out that hundreds of children have died while in ICE custody.


4. The Virginia House of Delegates will flip to Democratic control.


5. Japan's LDP-led conservative ruling coalition will suffer substantial losses in the upper chamber, although not enough to end the conservative majority. This will be taken as a sign of Abe fatigue.


6. The DJIA on Mon July 1st will close at or below 10% less than the Dec 31, 2018 close.


7. The unemployment rate June 2019 will climb above 4.5% (up from the November 2018 3.7%).


8. The Patriots will win the Super Bowl.


9. Instagram will replace Facebook as The Irreplaceable Social Media Company, mostly due to younger users. Of course, Facebook, which owns Instagram, will still make money.

Let's go into these one by one. ( Read more... )

What are your predictions for the year?