My predictions for 2019.
Dec. 31st, 2018 09:19 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
maxomaiAnd now, my predictions for 2019. These are somewhat more grim than they have been in previous years, and for good reason. They are:
Let's go into these one by one.
The Mueller investigation, which is apparently focused on collusion between the Trump campaign and the Russians, will turn up something even worse.
The media narrative of the Mueller investigation for 2018 is that Mueller knows what happened in broad detail, is now solidifying his case, and will be releasing his final report any day now. Also, the narrative has been that the investigation mostly centers on collusion between the Trump campaign and Russian entities. All this is true - but recent news that Mueller has obtained a treasure trove of additional documents, including a nude selfie, suggests that something more salacious is coming up. Knowing the parties involved, I'm guessing that we're going to see more than just a quid-pro-quo. Think blackmail, and I would not be surprised if human trafficking was involved.
Turkish forces will rout the Kurdish forces in Eastern Syria, causing yet another humanitarian crisis.
One of the very few things that Trump has gotten right is getting the US out of Syria. Unfortunately, this means that we no longer have much control over what Russia and Turkey do. Russia will continue to support Assad with all their might, which means that Turkey will be stuck. I expect Turkey to put their anti-Assad operations on hold, and to make lemons out of lemonade. A lot of Syrian territory is in Kurdish hands, and any sort of independent Kurdish territory is a threat to Turkish sovereignty in the east. Unlike Turkish operations against Assad, the Russians will not stand in the way of Turkish operations against Kurds.
It will come out that hundreds of children have died while in ICE custody.
So far, there have been two reports of deaths. I think those are the tip of the iceberg, and that systematic abuses are worse than we're being told. Once Democrats assume control of the House, they will be able to investigate further.
Both chambers of the Virginia state legislature will flip to Democratic control.
Right now, the GOP holds on to a slim, two-seat majority in both chambers of the Virginia legislature. They almost lost the lower chamber in 2017. Between Trump fatigue and the energized Democratic base, the Democrats have a better than 50% chance of winning two more seats, and then some, in both chambers.
Japan's LDP-led conservative ruling coalition will suffer substantial losses in the upper chamber, costing them their supermajority.
The conservative Liberal Democratic Party have had a hammerlock on power in Japan, with only a few exceptions, since their formation in 1955. I don't expect that to change any time soon. However, they and their coalition partners in the Komeito party now have a supermajority in both the upper and lower chambers, and they've used it to ram through badly flawed legislation. News outlets that used to support the conservatives are increasingly outraged by these practices, and although Abe's formerly abysmal approval ratings have improved to positive territory, most of his policies are unpopular. All this is background for the House of Councillors "mid-term" elections, expected at or about July 2019. LDP and friends have a lot more seats up for election than the opposition, and the map looks not-great.
The DJIA on Mon July 1st will close at or below 10% less than the Dec 31, 2018 close.
The unemployment rate June 2019 will climb above 4.5% (up from the November 2018 3.7%).
To put it simply, Trump's trade wars are hurting the economy, particularly agriculture, and the retail sector is due for bloodshed. There is a very good chance that we will see a recession in 2019. We can hope that it's a small recession. Trump's policies might mean that it's a big, ugly recession.
The Patriots will win the Super Bowl.
Simply put, the Patriots are boringly, predictable, winners. They'll clean up the AFC and then they will be the odds-on favorites.
Instagram will replace Facebook as The Irreplaceable Social Media Company, mostly due to younger users. Of course, Facebook, which owns Instagram, will still make money.
Simply put: Facebook is for old people; Instagram is for young people; Twitter is for everyone.
What are your predictions for the year?
- The Mueller investigation, which is apparently focused on collusion between the Trump campaign and the Russians, will turn up something even worse.
- Turkish forces will rout the Kurdish forces in Eastern Syria, causing yet another humanitarian crisis.
- It will come out that hundreds of children have died while in ICE custody.
- The Virginia House of Delegates will flip to Democratic control.
- Japan's LDP-led conservative ruling coalition will suffer substantial losses in the upper chamber, although not enough to end the conservative majority. This will be taken as a sign of Abe fatigue.
- The DJIA on Mon July 1st will close at or below 10% less than the Dec 31, 2018 close.
- The unemployment rate June 2019 will climb above 4.5% (up from the November 2018 3.7%).
- The Patriots will win the Super Bowl.
- Instagram will replace Facebook as The Irreplaceable Social Media Company, mostly due to younger users. Of course, Facebook, which owns Instagram, will still make money.
Let's go into these one by one.
The Mueller investigation, which is apparently focused on collusion between the Trump campaign and the Russians, will turn up something even worse.
The media narrative of the Mueller investigation for 2018 is that Mueller knows what happened in broad detail, is now solidifying his case, and will be releasing his final report any day now. Also, the narrative has been that the investigation mostly centers on collusion between the Trump campaign and Russian entities. All this is true - but recent news that Mueller has obtained a treasure trove of additional documents, including a nude selfie, suggests that something more salacious is coming up. Knowing the parties involved, I'm guessing that we're going to see more than just a quid-pro-quo. Think blackmail, and I would not be surprised if human trafficking was involved.
Turkish forces will rout the Kurdish forces in Eastern Syria, causing yet another humanitarian crisis.
One of the very few things that Trump has gotten right is getting the US out of Syria. Unfortunately, this means that we no longer have much control over what Russia and Turkey do. Russia will continue to support Assad with all their might, which means that Turkey will be stuck. I expect Turkey to put their anti-Assad operations on hold, and to make lemons out of lemonade. A lot of Syrian territory is in Kurdish hands, and any sort of independent Kurdish territory is a threat to Turkish sovereignty in the east. Unlike Turkish operations against Assad, the Russians will not stand in the way of Turkish operations against Kurds.
It will come out that hundreds of children have died while in ICE custody.
So far, there have been two reports of deaths. I think those are the tip of the iceberg, and that systematic abuses are worse than we're being told. Once Democrats assume control of the House, they will be able to investigate further.
Both chambers of the Virginia state legislature will flip to Democratic control.
Right now, the GOP holds on to a slim, two-seat majority in both chambers of the Virginia legislature. They almost lost the lower chamber in 2017. Between Trump fatigue and the energized Democratic base, the Democrats have a better than 50% chance of winning two more seats, and then some, in both chambers.
Japan's LDP-led conservative ruling coalition will suffer substantial losses in the upper chamber, costing them their supermajority.
The conservative Liberal Democratic Party have had a hammerlock on power in Japan, with only a few exceptions, since their formation in 1955. I don't expect that to change any time soon. However, they and their coalition partners in the Komeito party now have a supermajority in both the upper and lower chambers, and they've used it to ram through badly flawed legislation. News outlets that used to support the conservatives are increasingly outraged by these practices, and although Abe's formerly abysmal approval ratings have improved to positive territory, most of his policies are unpopular. All this is background for the House of Councillors "mid-term" elections, expected at or about July 2019. LDP and friends have a lot more seats up for election than the opposition, and the map looks not-great.
The DJIA on Mon July 1st will close at or below 10% less than the Dec 31, 2018 close.
The unemployment rate June 2019 will climb above 4.5% (up from the November 2018 3.7%).
To put it simply, Trump's trade wars are hurting the economy, particularly agriculture, and the retail sector is due for bloodshed. There is a very good chance that we will see a recession in 2019. We can hope that it's a small recession. Trump's policies might mean that it's a big, ugly recession.
The Patriots will win the Super Bowl.
Simply put, the Patriots are boringly, predictable, winners. They'll clean up the AFC and then they will be the odds-on favorites.
Instagram will replace Facebook as The Irreplaceable Social Media Company, mostly due to younger users. Of course, Facebook, which owns Instagram, will still make money.
Simply put: Facebook is for old people; Instagram is for young people; Twitter is for everyone.
What are your predictions for the year?
