Public Policy Polling in Iowa: Wheat from Chaff

PPP released their poll (PDF) of Iowa's likely caucus participants yesterday. Among Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents:

Trump 19
Carson 12
Walker 12
Bush 11
Fiorina 10
Cruz 9
Huckabee 6
Rubio 6
The rest <= 3
MOE 3.9

Obviously Trump still leads the pack by a lot, but notice with whom Bush is sharing tier two: Ben Carson, Scott Walker, Carly Fiorina, Ted Cruz. Everyone else falls to tier three or four. Of these, Fiorina had the most impressive gain, going from the loser's table to a dead heat with Bush.

As for the Democrats:

Clinton 52
Sanders 25
O'Malley 6
Webb 3
Chafee 1
MOE 4.1

No surprises here. Clinton has tier one to herself, Sanders has tier two to himself. The rest are all tier three.

Late Tuesday/Early Wednesday Miscellany!

• Deconstructing Chuck Schumer on Iran


• Sanders beats Clinton in New Hampshire, but there's a catch. The poll assumes Joe Biden runs. Not only is he not running (which IMO makes this poll invalid) but I think he'll stay out unless Clinton crashes and burns (which still could happen if this email server thing leads to an indictment).


• Justin Raimondo on why the GOP hasn't learned from their foreign policy mistakes.


• Donald Trump claims the polls show his remarks haven't crossed the line. Of course, he's 100% wrong. He keeps crossing lines. And the Republican base loves him for it. Unfortunately for the GOP, that makes their job of winning the general election that much harder.


• One of the first patches to Windows 10 leads to an infinite loop of rebooting, effectively bricking the computer. Nice work, Microsoft.


• Oracle's Chief Security Officer apparently threatened to C&D, and possibly sue, anyone who found a security hole in their product. She also claims that Oracle is just fine and dandy doing their own audits. IMO this is a great reason for security researchers to just release any vulnerability they find to the public without telling Oracle first, Daniel Bernstein style. Hold their feet to the fire. And if they lose business as a result, well, maybe they should change their policy.


• You should run out and buy She Walks In Shadows, an anthology of Lovecraftian horror with all women protagonists, for three reasons. First, co-editor Silvia Moreno-Garcia is awesome. Second, my wife has artwork in this book, and so does my friend Shelby Denham. Third, this book apparently makes "not all men" sad in their pants, which is a noble goal in and of itself. You can pre-order the book here.