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We have the first scientific poll results after the Republican debate. And they're unsettling.
Reuters/Ipsos Poll (PDF) conducted August 6 (post-debate)-10, 2015. (For comparison, use these Ipsos numbers (PDF) sampled Aug 1-5.)
Among Republicans and Independents Both (pre-debate poll in parentheses):
Trump 21 (23)
Bush 11 (12)
Rubio 6 (5)
The rest less than or equal to 5 (8)
MOE 4.4 (3.5)
Among Republicans alone:
Trump 24 (24)
Bush 12 (16)
Rubio 8 (4)
Huckabee 8 (5)
Carson 8 (5)
Walker 7 (12)
Fiorina 6 (1)
The rest le 5 (le 7)
MOE 6.7 (6.0)
Among Independents alone:
Bush 13 (7)
Trump 12 (18)
Paul 9 (5)
Christie 9 (9)
Rubio 7 (4)
The rest le 5 (le 5)
MOE 10.5 (9.5)
There is good news and bad news here for the Republican establishment. The good news is that their annointed candidate, Jeb Bush, has gained support among independents. The bad news is that Trump's crass behavior and pathetic closing statement at last week's debate appears to have hardly dented his numbers with the Republican base, even as he apparently has alienated Republican-leaning independents. The base loves Trump, and will keep loving him as he decimates the GOP's appeal to anyone not in the base. Meanwhile, Jeb Bush has lost support among the Republican base. This puts the GOP in an unenviable position. The GOP is used to mollifying moderates and cranking their base; with Jeb as the candidate, they may very well have to mollify their base and try to crank moderates. Except that they don't have the right numbers of either to do that.
Reuters/Ipsos also polled head-to-head match-ups of Hillary Clinton against several Republican candidates, and she leads all of them by double digits:
MOE 4.4
Clinton 41
Bush 29
Clinton 44
Walker 24
Clinton 42
Christie 25
Clinton 44
Carson 24
Clinton 41
Cruz 27
Clinton 41
Rubio 28
Clinton 43
Trump 29
I'm not happy with the MOEs on this poll, and Ipsos Online got a C+ in FiveThirtyEight's pollster ratings. But, their polls also lean Republican, and this poll is consistent with other polls we've seen that give Clinton a commanding lead.
Reuters/Ipsos Poll (PDF) conducted August 6 (post-debate)-10, 2015. (For comparison, use these Ipsos numbers (PDF) sampled Aug 1-5.)
Among Republicans and Independents Both (pre-debate poll in parentheses):
Trump 21 (23)
Bush 11 (12)
Rubio 6 (5)
The rest less than or equal to 5 (8)
MOE 4.4 (3.5)
Among Republicans alone:
Trump 24 (24)
Bush 12 (16)
Rubio 8 (4)
Huckabee 8 (5)
Carson 8 (5)
Walker 7 (12)
Fiorina 6 (1)
The rest le 5 (le 7)
MOE 6.7 (6.0)
Among Independents alone:
Bush 13 (7)
Trump 12 (18)
Paul 9 (5)
Christie 9 (9)
Rubio 7 (4)
The rest le 5 (le 5)
MOE 10.5 (9.5)
There is good news and bad news here for the Republican establishment. The good news is that their annointed candidate, Jeb Bush, has gained support among independents. The bad news is that Trump's crass behavior and pathetic closing statement at last week's debate appears to have hardly dented his numbers with the Republican base, even as he apparently has alienated Republican-leaning independents. The base loves Trump, and will keep loving him as he decimates the GOP's appeal to anyone not in the base. Meanwhile, Jeb Bush has lost support among the Republican base. This puts the GOP in an unenviable position. The GOP is used to mollifying moderates and cranking their base; with Jeb as the candidate, they may very well have to mollify their base and try to crank moderates. Except that they don't have the right numbers of either to do that.
Reuters/Ipsos also polled head-to-head match-ups of Hillary Clinton against several Republican candidates, and she leads all of them by double digits:
MOE 4.4
Clinton 41
Bush 29
Clinton 44
Walker 24
Clinton 42
Christie 25
Clinton 44
Carson 24
Clinton 41
Cruz 27
Clinton 41
Rubio 28
Clinton 43
Trump 29
I'm not happy with the MOEs on this poll, and Ipsos Online got a C+ in FiveThirtyEight's pollster ratings. But, their polls also lean Republican, and this poll is consistent with other polls we've seen that give Clinton a commanding lead.
