When a poll is too good to be true

Check out this poll from Vanderbilt:

Tennessee
Obama 41
Romney 42
MOE 4
N = 1002

Obama's within one point of Romney in deep red Tennessee! Wow!

Just one problem: this is a poll of Tennessee residents. The same poll shows Romney up seven with registered voters, which is a proper subset of residents. The likely voter model in Tennessee, when those polls start coming out, will be even worse for Obama. And in November, barring the absolute collapse of the Romney campaign and a consequent Obama landslide, Tennessee will go in Romney's column.

When a poll is too good to be true

Check out this poll from Vanderbilt:

Tennessee
Obama 41
Romney 42
MOE 4
N = 1002

Obama's within one point of Romney in deep red Tennessee! Wow!

Just one problem: this is a poll of Tennessee residents. The same poll shows Romney up seven with registered voters, which is a proper subset of residents. The likely voter model in Tennessee, when those polls start coming out, will be even worse for Obama. And in November, barring the absolute collapse of the Romney campaign and a consequent Obama landslide, Tennessee will go in Romney's column.

May 21 MISCELLANY!

• Believe it or not, Ron Paul's had a real impact in the Republican nomination process by capturing the majority of delegates in recent caucuses. He's not going to be the candidate, but he could push for changes in the GOP platform. Legalizing pot? Ending the wars? Probably not. Austrian economics? End the Fed? Maybe. For another POV, you can do worse than Justin Raimondo.


• Anonymous does more than just release ultimata and take down corporate and government front pages, you know. They also expose child pornography. They also do birthdays.


• More Birther silliness here. It's one thing to question the consensus. It's another to secede from reality altogether and form a brand new party line.


• "We will not do as we are told. Instead, we will do what is just." Thus sayeth the Catholic League. And these brave, bold words would be admirable, if what they wanted wasn't to deny women basic reproductive health care. Meanwhile, the RCC's bishops are investigating the girl scouts. All in the name of enforcing a male-defined model of womanhood. My advice on the matter: forget it, boys, the clock stops for no one.


• I need to post this more often on FaceBook.

May 21 MISCELLANY!

• Believe it or not, Ron Paul's had a real impact in the Republican nomination process by capturing the majority of delegates in recent caucuses. He's not going to be the candidate, but he could push for changes in the GOP platform. Legalizing pot? Ending the wars? Probably not. Austrian economics? End the Fed? Maybe. For another POV, you can do worse than Justin Raimondo.


• Anonymous does more than just release ultimata and take down corporate and government front pages, you know. They also expose child pornography. They also do birthdays.


• More Birther silliness here. It's one thing to question the consensus. It's another to secede from reality altogether and form a brand new party line.


• "We will not do as we are told. Instead, we will do what is just." Thus sayeth the Catholic League. And these brave, bold words would be admirable, if what they wanted wasn't to deny women basic reproductive health care. Meanwhile, the RCC's bishops are investigating the girl scouts. All in the name of enforcing a male-defined model of womanhood. My advice on the matter: forget it, boys, the clock stops for no one.


• I need to post this more often on FaceBook.