The Auto Bailout Offense

The Obama campaign and its various proxies are hoping to score hits with this ad:

Here, Obama's team is presenting the auto industry bailouts as a progressive, populist economic policy - one that was successful, one that Romney opposed. It's narrative-setting and potentially devastating. It's also a damn good thing to be rolling out right now, because the Republican narrative on rising gas prices is clearly taking its toll on the President in the polls (as per the Rasmussen tracker, which as of yesterday had the race too close to call).

The Auto Bailout Offense

The Obama campaign and its various proxies are hoping to score hits with this ad:

Here, Obama's team is presenting the auto industry bailouts as a progressive, populist economic policy - one that was successful, one that Romney opposed. It's narrative-setting and potentially devastating. It's also a damn good thing to be rolling out right now, because the Republican narrative on rising gas prices is clearly taking its toll on the President in the polls (as per the Rasmussen tracker, which as of yesterday had the race too close to call).

A quick note on polls

The polls I tend to rely upon the most are Rasmussen (lean R), PPP (lean D), and SurveyUSA.

All three tend to be very accurate, certainly according to Nate Silver's research. All three of these polls, also, use computerized phone calls (IVR).

I'm thinking this is not a coincidence; but I can't think of why IVR would be better than traditional live-interview polling. Maybe the live interview poll allows the live interviewer to present a bias? Maybe the live interview polls aren't consistently conducted (as per Murphy)? Perhaps it is indeed just a coincidence.

It would be interesting to see whether some other poll - say, Zogby - improves by switching to IVR. (In Zogby's case, it certainly cannot hurt.)

A quick note on polls

The polls I tend to rely upon the most are Rasmussen (lean R), PPP (lean D), and SurveyUSA.

All three tend to be very accurate, certainly according to Nate Silver's research. All three of these polls, also, use computerized phone calls (IVR).

I'm thinking this is not a coincidence; but I can't think of why IVR would be better than traditional live-interview polling. Maybe the live interview poll allows the live interviewer to present a bias? Maybe the live interview polls aren't consistently conducted (as per Murphy)? Perhaps it is indeed just a coincidence.

It would be interesting to see whether some other poll - say, Zogby - improves by switching to IVR. (In Zogby's case, it certainly cannot hurt.)

Romney, Santorum split Michigan delegates 50-50

So...despite Romney getting more votes than Santorum in Michigan, it now appears that, for the purposes of delegate counts (which is what really matters here), Michigan was a tie.

Romney's result in the state of his birth lost some of its lustre as it emerged he and Rick Santorum each received 15 delegates.

This is in part because Michigan splits some delegates by who won each congressional district, and others by who won the popular vote.

That leaves both Romney and Santorum with room to brag going in to Super Tuesday. Which is not what Romney needs right now.

Romney, Santorum split Michigan delegates 50-50

So...despite Romney getting more votes than Santorum in Michigan, it now appears that, for the purposes of delegate counts (which is what really matters here), Michigan was a tie.

Romney's result in the state of his birth lost some of its lustre as it emerged he and Rick Santorum each received 15 delegates.

This is in part because Michigan splits some delegates by who won each congressional district, and others by who won the popular vote.

That leaves both Romney and Santorum with room to brag going in to Super Tuesday. Which is not what Romney needs right now.