#Michigan is suddenly Still Important But Not That Important | #GOP

Today the State of Michigan holds its primary elections. Polling is all over the map - not only on who's ahead (between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum) but in which candidate is in the midst of a surge. Nate Silver gives Romney a 55% chance of victory in his model, which as far as he's concerned makes this race too close to call.

The narrative has shifted for Michigan. This used to be the state that Romney had to win or his inevitability would turn into a steaming wreck, and that Santorum had to win of else his campaign couldn't continue. Well, that's changed. Romney is no longer inevitable, Santorum's campaign will continue, and now Michigan is a test of organizational strength coming into "Super Tuesday" next week. A close win for either candidate isn't going to signal much other than this is still a two-horse race. Only a big win by either candidate - 15 points or more - is going to pose an existential threat to either Romney's or Santorum's campaign. If either candidate loses big, they have to find a way to come back next week, or their opponent takes sole possession of the first tier. That's what's at stake coming up.

And yes, this implies that, in all likelihood, this primary season is going to continue well into summer. Which means Oregon's primary might actually matter.

#Michigan is suddenly Still Important But Not That Important | #GOP

Today the State of Michigan holds its primary elections. Polling is all over the map - not only on who's ahead (between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum) but in which candidate is in the midst of a surge. Nate Silver gives Romney a 55% chance of victory in his model, which as far as he's concerned makes this race too close to call.

The narrative has shifted for Michigan. This used to be the state that Romney had to win or his inevitability would turn into a steaming wreck, and that Santorum had to win of else his campaign couldn't continue. Well, that's changed. Romney is no longer inevitable, Santorum's campaign will continue, and now Michigan is a test of organizational strength coming into "Super Tuesday" next week. A close win for either candidate isn't going to signal much other than this is still a two-horse race. Only a big win by either candidate - 15 points or more - is going to pose an existential threat to either Romney's or Santorum's campaign. If either candidate loses big, they have to find a way to come back next week, or their opponent takes sole possession of the first tier. That's what's at stake coming up.

And yes, this implies that, in all likelihood, this primary season is going to continue well into summer. Which means Oregon's primary might actually matter.

#Dow Closes above 13000

Today is the first time since May of 2008 that the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed over 13,000.

I predicted that this would happen in 2011, and I was off by two months. Drat.

#Dow Closes above 13000

Today is the first time since May of 2008 that the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed over 13,000.

I predicted that this would happen in 2011, and I was off by two months. Drat.

#Israel already destroyed #Iran nuke facilities

It would appear that Stratfor figured out years ago that Israel have already destroyed Iran's nuclear weapons program in a series of commando raids. Such was one of the interesting tidbits of the emails released by Wikileaks today.

Not only that, but the emails tell us the real reason for the push for war with Iran:

“I think this is a diversion. The Israelis already destroyed all the Iranian nuclear infrastructure on the ground weeks ago,” one intelligence official wrote in an email dated November 14, 2011. “The current ‘let’s bomb Iran’ campaign was ordered by the EU leaders to divert the public attention from their at home financial problems. It plays also well for the US since Pakistan, Russia and N. Korea are mentioned in the report. ”

Well isn't that special!

Stratfor is, by the way, neither confirming nor denying the contents of the emails, which is pretty much as expected. But if in the future someone wants to make the case for war against Iran using nuclear weapons as an excuse, they have to account for this email. And given the consequences of war, they need to answer it convincingly and totally. Accept nothing less.

And for the record, "someone" includes the Obama administration and their media proxies.

#Israel already destroyed #Iran nuke facilities

It would appear that Stratfor figured out years ago that Israel have already destroyed Iran's nuclear weapons program in a series of commando raids. Such was one of the interesting tidbits of the emails released by Wikileaks today.

Not only that, but the emails tell us the real reason for the push for war with Iran:

“I think this is a diversion. The Israelis already destroyed all the Iranian nuclear infrastructure on the ground weeks ago,” one intelligence official wrote in an email dated November 14, 2011. “The current ‘let’s bomb Iran’ campaign was ordered by the EU leaders to divert the public attention from their at home financial problems. It plays also well for the US since Pakistan, Russia and N. Korea are mentioned in the report. ”

Well isn't that special!

Stratfor is, by the way, neither confirming nor denying the contents of the emails, which is pretty much as expected. But if in the future someone wants to make the case for war against Iran using nuclear weapons as an excuse, they have to account for this email. And given the consequences of war, they need to answer it convincingly and totally. Accept nothing less.

And for the record, "someone" includes the Obama administration and their media proxies.

Olympia #Snowe is retiring | #Maine #GOP #Senate

Three-term Senator Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) has announced that she will not seek re-election.

Snowe, a moderate Republican who was often a key swing
vote on partisan issues, was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 1994.
She previously represented Maine's 2nd Congressional District in the
U.S. House for 16 years.

This seat was a Republican lock. Now it's become a very good pick-up opportunity for the Democrats. If the GOP were hoping to take the Senate this year, that task just got harder. Still possible if the economy tanks, but harder.

Olympia #Snowe is retiring | #Maine #GOP #Senate

Three-term Senator Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) has announced that she will not seek re-election.

Snowe, a moderate Republican who was often a key swing
vote on partisan issues, was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 1994.
She previously represented Maine's 2nd Congressional District in the
U.S. House for 16 years.

This seat was a Republican lock. Now it's become a very good pick-up opportunity for the Democrats. If the GOP were hoping to take the Senate this year, that task just got harder. Still possible if the economy tanks, but harder.