![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
maxomaiToday the State of Michigan holds its primary elections. Polling is all over the map - not only on who's ahead (between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum) but in which candidate is in the midst of a surge. Nate Silver gives Romney a 55% chance of victory in his model, which as far as he's concerned makes this race too close to call.
The narrative has shifted for Michigan. This used to be the state that Romney had to win or his inevitability would turn into a steaming wreck, and that Santorum had to win of else his campaign couldn't continue. Well, that's changed. Romney is no longer inevitable, Santorum's campaign will continue, and now Michigan is a test of organizational strength coming into "Super Tuesday" next week. A close win for either candidate isn't going to signal much other than this is still a two-horse race. Only a big win by either candidate - 15 points or more - is going to pose an existential threat to either Romney's or Santorum's campaign. If either candidate loses big, they have to find a way to come back next week, or their opponent takes sole possession of the first tier. That's what's at stake coming up.
And yes, this implies that, in all likelihood, this primary season is going to continue well into summer. Which means Oregon's primary might actually matter.
The narrative has shifted for Michigan. This used to be the state that Romney had to win or his inevitability would turn into a steaming wreck, and that Santorum had to win of else his campaign couldn't continue. Well, that's changed. Romney is no longer inevitable, Santorum's campaign will continue, and now Michigan is a test of organizational strength coming into "Super Tuesday" next week. A close win for either candidate isn't going to signal much other than this is still a two-horse race. Only a big win by either candidate - 15 points or more - is going to pose an existential threat to either Romney's or Santorum's campaign. If either candidate loses big, they have to find a way to come back next week, or their opponent takes sole possession of the first tier. That's what's at stake coming up.
And yes, this implies that, in all likelihood, this primary season is going to continue well into summer. Which means Oregon's primary might actually matter.
