maxomai | 2013 Predictions

I just gave you my scorecard for my predictions for 2012; if you missed it, you can find it here. Now, I present my predictions for 2013. As usual, I'll grade myself on these a year from now -- but feel free to print them out or save a PDF to keep me honest!

Meaningful action on the "fiscal cliff" won't happen until February at least

The credit rating of the United States Government will take another hit

No federal assault weapons ban will pass

Assad will lose the Syrian civil war, but only after much blood

Scott Brown will win the special election to fill John Kerry's Senate seat

Obamacare will dominate the second half of 2013 politics

Inflation will remain below 10%

The Oregon Ducks will win the Fiesta Bowl

My reasoning for each of these predictions is below.

Meaningful action on the "fiscal cliff" won't happen until February at least

Despite announcements and hand-wringing to the contrary, neither Barack Obama nor John Boehner is in any position to settle the "fiscal cliff" negotiations until after the next Congress convenes. The President can't possibly make an offer that will make Boehner's caucus, especially the Tea Party components, happy. Boehner, for his part, won't have the votes for a compromise until after the next session begins. Nor is he motivated to act quickly. Any deal is going to roll back the tax increases and budget cuts that start setting in after January 1st, which will keep his wealthy patrons happy. More to the point, as the fiscal cliff negotiations start to bleed into the debt ceiling negotiations, Boehner has a stronger hand. The implication is that the eventual deal is going to look dreadful to progressives.

The credit rating of the United States Government will take another hit

This would be a consequence of the failure to reach a budget deal, as outlined above. Fitch and Dagong have already signaled that a downgrade is likely if a deal isn't reached in a timely manner.

No federal assault weapons ban will pass

To hear the progressive voices in the media tell it, an assault weapons ban, such as proposed by Diane Feinstein, is all but certain next year. Political realities tell a different story. This ban is likely to pass the Senate on a nearly party-line vote, but it is unlikely to pass the Republican-controlled House. Since Sandy, a total of two Congressional Republicans have signaled their willingness to even consider gun control measures. In fact, Boehner probably wont' even schedule the Feinstein bill for a vote.

It's not that the measure is unpopular, although PPP and Gallup disagree on its popularity. It's not even that the Tea Party is opposed to a ban. The constituency that will hold the GOP accountable is hard-line Second Amendment advocates.

Since Sandy Hook, the rhetoric on both sides of the gun debate has been highly vitriolic, in parts mendacious, and often irrational. While many gun owners side with Feinstein, hundreds of thousands more have been told that they're the moral equivalent of serial killers. Their response, unsurprisingly, is, "fuck you." They are not in the mood to explain their actions to or negotiate with the anti-gun side. Their policy is zero tolerance. These are the same folks that contributed 88,000 signatures to a petition calling for Piers Morgan to be deported, Kleindienst v. Mandel style. The moment Feinstein's proposal hit the Internet, they got to work spreading the word and hitting the phones. It's virtually certain that any Republican that votes for this ban, or is seen as acting insufficiently to stop it, will face a primary challenge from both those gun owners and the Tea Party. I doubt any of them will risk it.

It's easy to conflate these people with the NRA. The surest sign that they are not the NRA, and not acting on behest of, or in agreement with, the NRA, is that they're not exactly enthusiastic about Wayne LaPierre's lame arm-the-teachers proposal either. This is a grass roots response, which the NRA did not instigate. Indeed, the NRA needs to get ahead of it, or risk seeming irrelevant compared to more strident groups such as Gun Owners of America or the Second Amendment Foundation.

Other new gun control measures are possible, provided they're quite modest. Closing the private transaction loophole - in other words, requiring all gun transactions to have a background check or to go through an FFL - is overwhelmingly popular at 92%, and strikes me as a good candidate for passage in 2013. Almost anything else, including a ban on large magazines proposed by House Democrats, is going to run into a wall of opposition.

The flip side is that this is a short term situation that might last a few years. Continued hard line opposition, without a serious proposal to keep firearms out of the hands of deranged maniacs, will eventually lead to a blanket ban and confiscation. Second Amendment hard liners - not the NRA, but the SAF, GOA, JPFO, and the grass roots they represent - need to think carefully about what measures they will accept in order to keep guns out of the hands of people who cannot handle them responsibly. Yes, this is asking a lot.

Assad will lose the Syrian civil war, but only after much blood

Assad is holding on to power because the rebels are disorganized, and because he has substantial diplomatic support from Russia and China. Both of these factors are likely to change soon. Once Assad loses Chinese and Russian support, his only remaining friend will be Iran. That will hardly be enough.

Scott Brown will win the special election to fill John Kerry's Senate seat

The entire Massachusetts Democratic establishment is uniting behind Ed Markey to replace John Kerry in the US Senate as Kerry takes over as Secretary of State. Unfortunately, a recent poll has Markey down 18 points against the likely GOP candidate, Scott Brown. The national resources of both parties will come to bear in this race, but Republicans are motivated - they went after Susan Rice to get this seat.

Obamacare will dominate the second half of 2013 politics

The bulk of new insurance rules take effect in 2014; but in October of 2013, the new insurance exchanges open to the public, and that becomes the first real test of this law. Presuming it goes well, there will still be glitches and pitfalls that make headlines whether you watch MSNBC or FOX. If it goes badly - because, for example, all that's made available is expensive junk insurance - look out. Personally, I'm cautiously optimistic, but we'll have to see.

Inflation will remain below 10%

For the third and final year in a row, I am putting right wing hand-wringing about hyperinflation to the test. The most conservative definition of hyperinflation is that it represents a doubling of prices in the space of three years or less. In order for that to happen, we need an inflation rate of a little less than 26% for three years in a row. In 2011, it was 3.4%. In 2012, it was under 3%. In 2013, I expect inflation to remain below 10%, and that's assuming the economy sees a very robust recovery. I think this scenario is unlikely given the austerity that will be forced on us by the "fiscal cliff." The one point in the hyperinflation camp's favor - the creation of trillions in fake money to cover the losses of the largest banks - is negated by the fact that more than 99 cents out of every dollar of this fake money will never enter general circulation. It also bears repeating that we should consider ourselves very fortunate indeed to not be in a deflationary spiral right now.

The Oregon Ducks will win the Fiesta Bowl

Kansas State has a solid offense and a solid quarterback. Oregon has a stunning, explosive offense, an amazing quarterback in Mariota, and a gimmicky play style that is not found outside the Pac 12. My guess is an Oregon blowout.