#Iowa Prediction Thread | #GOP
Jan. 1st, 2012 09:59 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
maxomaiMy prediction for the Iowa caucuses:
First Place: Mitt Romney
Second Place: Ron Paul
Third Place: Rick Santorum
The caucuses are about who can show up, organize their people the best, and persuade other caucus-goers to join them. Romney will have all three. Paul's people have sheer numbers and organization, but I don't think they're going to persuade many other caucus-goers to join them. Santorum will benefit from Evangelical support, but his actual support levels will be unimpressive compared to recent poll numbers.
What say you?
First Place: Mitt Romney
Second Place: Ron Paul
Third Place: Rick Santorum
The caucuses are about who can show up, organize their people the best, and persuade other caucus-goers to join them. Romney will have all three. Paul's people have sheer numbers and organization, but I don't think they're going to persuade many other caucus-goers to join them. Santorum will benefit from Evangelical support, but his actual support levels will be unimpressive compared to recent poll numbers.
What say you?
