2017 Predictions Scorecard

[maxomai]

A little more than a year ago, I presented my predictions for 2017. Unlike other predictors, I keep score of how I did at the end of each year, as a way to hold myself accountable. So, how did I do this year? Not so well, in fact.

My predictions were:

• There will be a war in Eastern Europe.


• The Far Right will win in the Netherlands, but not in Germany or France, despite substantial gains.


• Democrats will win Governor’s races in Virginia and New Jersey.


• Richard Spencer will not be elected to Congress.


• The economy will slow down, with tech feeling it the worst.


• The State of California will sue to keep recreational marijuana legal.


• The Chicago Cubs will return to the postseason.


• Alabama will win the national college football championship.

Here's how I did on each of these:

• There will be a war in Eastern Europe. This did not happen in 2017, but the conditions,
  which I described in my 2017 predictions post, still remain. This is a prediction I will carry over into next year.


• The Far Right will win in the Netherlands, but not in Germany or France, despite substantial gains. The Far Right PVV did not win in the Netherlands, but did come in second place, and gained enough seats in the European Parliament to form a far-right caucus along with eight other European nationalists. Le Pen lost in France to a centrist alliance led by Marcon. Perhaps the European far right's greatest victory was in Germany, where AfD, although by no means the majority, managed to get just enough seats to make forming a new government impossible. De-facto leadership of the Free World now lies with France.


• Democrats will win Governor’s races in Virginia and New Jersey. New Jersey was an easy call. Virginia was a harder one, but as it turns out, the Virginia Democrats got their acts together, and not only retained the Governor's seat, but nearly wrested control of the House of Delegates from the GOP.


• Richard Spencer will not be elected to Congress. This prediction was made at a time when Spencer wanted to make a bid for Ryan Zinke's seat in the House. Spencer ended up not running, quite possibly because punching Nazis became a thing in January.


• The economy will slow down, with tech feeling it the worst. In fact, while the economy did slow down somewhat, tech had a boom year.


• The State of California will sue to keep recreational marijuana legal. My presumption here was that the Trump administration would go after low-hanging fruit --- legal marijuana --- before tackling bigger topics like immigration. In fact, they went after immigrants first, and in doing so nearly led the nation to a full-blown melt-down.


• The Chicago Cubs will return to the postseason. The Cubs made it to the postseason, and to the NLDS. They did not make it farther.


• Alabama will win the national college football championship. In fact, they lost to Clemson,
  35-31.