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So, the Senate voted today on a number of amendments to an anti-gun bill, and the end result was a string of failures that left the gun rights side elated and the gun control side fuming mad. It seems that in just a few weeks we've gone from universal background checks, to limited background checks, to jack shit.
Ultimately what we saw today was the end result of a months long battle of political wills. The gun control side had their members fully engaged but not fully organized. The gun rights side had their people fully engaged, and organized. And, despite the gun control side having better PR, the gun rights side had the better tactics this round. By choosing to fight on the issue of background checks - which should have been common ground - they made an assault weapons and magazine ban out of reach for the foreseeable future. They they made even background checks politically unpalatable. As such, not only has nothing happened, but even getting legislation that should have passed to establish universal background checks is going to take a major effort of years.
The gun control side made two major tactical blunders early in this fight.
First, they came in immediately with heated rhetoric in order to alienate people from the NRA. This had basically no effect on the gun control side, which was already engaged, but it had plenty of effect on the gun rights side, which went from demoralized and confused in December to pissed off and engaged by February.
Second, the gun control side - unwittingly - created a major example of how gun control legislation could go wrong, by passing draconian measures in New York State. Even though similar laws were never on the table, let alone feasible, on a Federal level, the notion that New York State could be repeated everywhere became a potent rallying cry.
So, that's where we're at. But, as the President, points out, this is just round one. The GOP controls the House and most of the Governors' mansions, but the Democrats probably have the White House until 2024. We've seen what the Senate can do - basically nothing. Right now, the gun control side has a better PR effort, but the gun rights side has more intensity.
In the short run, gun control is done on a federal level. There are still state measures under discussion, but we're going to see more gun rights measures pass than gun control measures. In the mid run - over the next ten years - we'll probably see universal background checks and minimum requirements for concealed carry licenses. In the long run, the tendency is toward erosion of Second Amendment rights, the last decade notwithstanding, and I think we can expect that trend to continue.
In any case, my prediction, that an assault weapons ban would not pass, has come to fruition.
Ultimately what we saw today was the end result of a months long battle of political wills. The gun control side had their members fully engaged but not fully organized. The gun rights side had their people fully engaged, and organized. And, despite the gun control side having better PR, the gun rights side had the better tactics this round. By choosing to fight on the issue of background checks - which should have been common ground - they made an assault weapons and magazine ban out of reach for the foreseeable future. They they made even background checks politically unpalatable. As such, not only has nothing happened, but even getting legislation that should have passed to establish universal background checks is going to take a major effort of years.
The gun control side made two major tactical blunders early in this fight.
First, they came in immediately with heated rhetoric in order to alienate people from the NRA. This had basically no effect on the gun control side, which was already engaged, but it had plenty of effect on the gun rights side, which went from demoralized and confused in December to pissed off and engaged by February.
Second, the gun control side - unwittingly - created a major example of how gun control legislation could go wrong, by passing draconian measures in New York State. Even though similar laws were never on the table, let alone feasible, on a Federal level, the notion that New York State could be repeated everywhere became a potent rallying cry.
So, that's where we're at. But, as the President, points out, this is just round one. The GOP controls the House and most of the Governors' mansions, but the Democrats probably have the White House until 2024. We've seen what the Senate can do - basically nothing. Right now, the gun control side has a better PR effort, but the gun rights side has more intensity.
In the short run, gun control is done on a federal level. There are still state measures under discussion, but we're going to see more gun rights measures pass than gun control measures. In the mid run - over the next ten years - we'll probably see universal background checks and minimum requirements for concealed carry licenses. In the long run, the tendency is toward erosion of Second Amendment rights, the last decade notwithstanding, and I think we can expect that trend to continue.
In any case, my prediction, that an assault weapons ban would not pass, has come to fruition.
