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John Kerry is our new Secretary of State, and Governor Patrick has picked his interim replacement (Mo Cowan). The actual replacement for John Kerry needs to be chosen in a special election, and that will happen in June.
I said last month that Scott Brown, whom Elizabeth Warren defeated in November, would win this special election. PPP confirms that, if he runs, he would be the front runner.
MA-SEN
N = 763
Brown (R) 48
Markey (D) 45
Brown (R) 48
Lynch (D) 38
Markey is the stronger Democrat in this race, and he could still win with a sufficient effort. But Brown still has the edge.
In fact, I'd say that the most important factor right now in whether Brown is the next non-interim Senator from Massachusetts ... is whether he runs for Governor. And that Governor's race must look tempting.
MA-GOV
N = 763
Brown (R) 49
Berwick (D) 32
Brown (R) 48
Grossman (D) 37
Brown (R) 49
Ortiz (D) 32
The Governor's race, by the way, is not until November 2014. Meanwhile, the Senate race is in five months .. and then he has to run for that same Senate seat again in November 2014. To me, if I trust PPP, this decision is a no-brainer; but if I really, really want to be in the Senate....
I said last month that Scott Brown, whom Elizabeth Warren defeated in November, would win this special election. PPP confirms that, if he runs, he would be the front runner.
MA-SEN
N = 763
Brown (R) 48
Markey (D) 45
Brown (R) 48
Lynch (D) 38
Markey is the stronger Democrat in this race, and he could still win with a sufficient effort. But Brown still has the edge.
In fact, I'd say that the most important factor right now in whether Brown is the next non-interim Senator from Massachusetts ... is whether he runs for Governor. And that Governor's race must look tempting.
MA-GOV
N = 763
Brown (R) 49
Berwick (D) 32
Brown (R) 48
Grossman (D) 37
Brown (R) 49
Ortiz (D) 32
The Governor's race, by the way, is not until November 2014. Meanwhile, the Senate race is in five months .. and then he has to run for that same Senate seat again in November 2014. To me, if I trust PPP, this decision is a no-brainer; but if I really, really want to be in the Senate....
