PPP: Akin still leading McCaskill in #MOSEN race (but...)

So pretty much everyone knows that Todd Akin, Republican candidate for US Senate from the Great State of Missouri, said this on Sunday:

“It seems to be, first of all, from what I understand from doctors, [becoming pregnant as the result of rape is] really rare. If it’s a legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to shut the whole thing down.” (NYT)

This statement has the advantages of being, simultaneously, politically incorrect, victim-blaming, weirdly slut-shaming, a window into the psyche of the Christian right (2), and completely wrong on the facts. In the last 24 hours it's been The Political Story in the United States. But has it hurt his chances?

Well, thanks to a poll taken just yesterday, we have some idea, kinda. Or, actually, we don't, as I'll argue below.

Via PPP:

Akin (R) 44
McCaskill (D, inc) 43
MOE 4

Akin barely leads McCaskill here, but look at the results for questions 8 and 11 (PDF):

Q8 Who did you vote for President in 2008?

John McCain...................................................49%
Barack Obama................................................44%
Someone else/Don'tremember...................... 7%

Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3.

Democrat ........................................................ 30%
Republican ...................................................... 39%
Independent/Other .......................................... 32%

In 2008, John McCain won Missouri by a tenth of a percentage point of the vote total. And in 2010, a year that was much more favorable to Republicans than 2012 is going to be, the turnout was 34% Democratic, 37% Republican, 28% Independent. If we play with the cross-tabs, we can predict what the results would be if the turnout in November matches the partisan mix we saw in 2010:

Akin: 45
McCaskill: 46

Between this, and the methodological problems involved with a snap, one-day-only poll, it's reasonable to reject this poll.

The Democrats and the Republicans both have smart people looking at this race. Both parties know, I believe, that Akin is a complete dog of a candidate right now. For the Republicans, the situation is more dire. They want control of the Senate, and without a win in Missouri this becomes next to impossible. Missouri and DC Republicans have to believe that they could do better with Tracy FlickSarah Steelman now. The best way to replace Akin is for him to voluntarily drop out of the race by 5:00 PM CDT today. Barring that, the GOP will have to get a court order, or just live with Akin. Needless to say, the Republican Apparatus has been pressuring Akin to drop out of the Senate race and backed up their words by yanking their money. The Democrats, for their part, have an anti-Akin ad buy lined up for later this week.

All of this makes this PPP poll result especially dangerous for the GOP. Despite all its flaws, there's a good chance that Akin, darling of the Tea Party, will look at this poll from a normally lean-Democratic outfit, and conclude that he still dominates this race. The fact that he's putting out a new TV ad asking for forgiveness for his obnoxious, provably wrong statements, leads me to believe that he's still leaning towards staying in the race. If he does, I think he has a very hard road ahead.

(EDIT: in fact he cited this poll this morning on Mike Huckabee's radio show, as one of the main reasons he's staying in.)

By the way, you can donate to Todd Akin's opponent, Claire McCaskill, here.

PPP: Akin still leading McCaskill in #MOSEN race (but...)

So pretty much everyone knows that Todd Akin, Republican candidate for US Senate from the Great State of Missouri, said this on Sunday:

“It seems to be, first of all, from what I understand from doctors, [becoming pregnant as the result of rape is] really rare. If it’s a legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to shut the whole thing down.” (NYT)

This statement has the advantages of being, simultaneously, politically incorrect, victim-blaming, weirdly slut-shaming, a window into the psyche of the Christian right (2), and completely wrong on the facts. In the last 24 hours it's been The Political Story in the United States. But has it hurt his chances?

Well, thanks to a poll taken just yesterday, we have some idea, kinda. Or, actually, we don't, as I'll argue below.

Via PPP:

Akin (R) 44
McCaskill (D, inc) 43
MOE 4

Akin barely leads McCaskill here, but look at the results for questions 8 and 11 (PDF):

Q8 Who did you vote for President in 2008?

John McCain...................................................49%
Barack Obama................................................44%
Someone else/Don'tremember...................... 7%

Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3.

Democrat ........................................................ 30%
Republican ...................................................... 39%
Independent/Other .......................................... 32%

In 2008, John McCain won Missouri by a tenth of a percentage point of the vote total. And in 2010, a year that was much more favorable to Republicans than 2012 is going to be, the turnout was 34% Democratic, 37% Republican, 28% Independent. If we play with the cross-tabs, we can predict what the results would be if the turnout in November matches the partisan mix we saw in 2010:

Akin: 45
McCaskill: 46

Between this, and the methodological problems involved with a snap, one-day-only poll, it's reasonable to reject this poll.

The Democrats and the Republicans both have smart people looking at this race. Both parties know, I believe, that Akin is a complete dog of a candidate right now. For the Republicans, the situation is more dire. They want control of the Senate, and without a win in Missouri this becomes next to impossible. Missouri and DC Republicans have to believe that they could do better with Tracy FlickSarah Steelman now. The best way to replace Akin is for him to voluntarily drop out of the race by 5:00 PM CDT today. Barring that, the GOP will have to get a court order, or just live with Akin. Needless to say, the Republican Apparatus has been pressuring Akin to drop out of the Senate race and backed up their words by yanking their money. The Democrats, for their part, have an anti-Akin ad buy lined up for later this week.

All of this makes this PPP poll result especially dangerous for the GOP. Despite all its flaws, there's a good chance that Akin, darling of the Tea Party, will look at this poll from a normally lean-Democratic outfit, and conclude that he still dominates this race. The fact that he's putting out a new TV ad asking for forgiveness for his obnoxious, provably wrong statements, leads me to believe that he's still leaning towards staying in the race. If he does, I think he has a very hard road ahead.

(EDIT: in fact he cited this poll this morning on Mike Huckabee's radio show, as one of the main reasons he's staying in.)

By the way, you can donate to Todd Akin's opponent, Claire McCaskill, here.

Tuesday Miscellany!

• Netanyahu is talking about attacking Iran before the November elections.


• Speaking of which: how does Iran deal with the crisis of women doing better than men academically? Apparently, by banning women from 77 academic subjects, including engineering, chemistry and mathematics. There is some speculation that they have done this to inhibit anti-government activities, or to help increase the population.


• Todd Akin's non-apology apology ad: "The mistake I made was in the words I said, not in the heart I hold." Except, of course, that the words he said were probably a good reflection of what's going on in his head. That's precisely why such theocrats as the Family Research Council and Kirk Cameron are standing up for him. And that's a problem.


• Sandra Fluke on how Akin's gaffe is a warning about the reality of Romney and Ryan.


• What could Mexico tell us about revamping our own health care system? Slashdot has the story.

Tuesday Miscellany!

• Netanyahu is talking about attacking Iran before the November elections.


• Speaking of which: how does Iran deal with the crisis of women doing better than men academically? Apparently, by banning women from 77 academic subjects, including engineering, chemistry and mathematics. There is some speculation that they have done this to inhibit anti-government activities, or to help increase the population.


• Todd Akin's non-apology apology ad: "The mistake I made was in the words I said, not in the heart I hold." Except, of course, that the words he said were probably a good reflection of what's going on in his head. That's precisely why such theocrats as the Family Research Council and Kirk Cameron are standing up for him. And that's a problem.


• Sandra Fluke on how Akin's gaffe is a warning about the reality of Romney and Ryan.


• What could Mexico tell us about revamping our own health care system? Slashdot has the story.