2015 Predictions Scorecard

Back in December of 2014 --- those crazy, halcyon days gone by --- I posted my predictions for the year 2015. Unlike other prognosticators, I like to review my predictions a year later, to see how I did. Sometimes I do well, sometimes I do poorly. This time, I got a total of two (2) predictions right, my worst record so far.

To review, my predictions were as follows:

1. Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush will declare their candidacies for the Presidency of the United States before April 1, and will quickly dominate their respective parties’ Presidential races.


2. ISIS will attempt a major terrorist attack on US soil.


3. The United States will begin major combat operations against ISIS before December 31.


4. The Supreme Court will declare that bans against same-sex marriage violate the Constitution.


5. Ebola will kill at least 100,000 people, mostly in West Africa.


6. The Dow Jones Industrial Average will top 20,000.


7. The Chicago Cubs will make it to the postseason.


8. The Oregon Ducks will beat the Alabama Crimson Tide in the National College Championship Game.


9. The Seahawks will be repeat Super Bowl champions.

Let's go over each one and review what happened and where I went wrong.

1. Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush will declare their candidacies for the Presidency of the United States before April 1, and will quickly dominate their respective parties’ Presidential races.



I missed so many particulars on this prediction that I have to market as "DIDN'T HAPPEN." I figured that both would enter the race relatively early to raise money quickly and snuff out the competition. Neither candidate declared before April 1; they let their SuperPACs raise money and organize the ground game instead. I also figured that the primary races would be boring, and for the Democrats, they have been, the recent kerfuffle over DNC voter records notwithstanding. Clinton dominates the race in most scientific polls and will likely waltz to the nomination. The Republican race has been anything BUT boring with Donald Trump goose-stepping around and the most right-wing candidates snipping at his heels. Jeb Bush, the once-favorite, is now a third tier candidate at best, with everyone wistfully crossing their fingers that Donald Trump will finally say something so outrageous that his candidacy explodes like Howard Dean's did. But he keeps opening his mouth, and his support keeps growing, even as his supporters act worse and worse. In short, this is shaping up to be a general election that pits Hillary Clinton against Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, or Marco Rubio. 0/1



2. ISIS will attempt a major terrorist attack on US soil.


I misjudged their model, assuming that a big glitzy attack would help them raise money and followers. They've switched modes however, and are ow primarily interested in pissing off the rest of the world to start an apocalyptic battle. The worst attack, or attempted attack, on the United States, occurred when a husband-and-wife team killed 14 people in San Bernardino in a hail of gunfire; but it looks like the police stopped them from doing much more damage, as their house was full of pipe bombs. This still doesn't rise to the level of damaging significant infrastructure or killing thousands. 0/2



3. The United States will begin major combat operations against ISIS before December 31.


I figured a huge attack, or even a medium-sized one, would force us into a major role in the war on ISIS. Here, I underestimated Barack Obama again. So far the US has kept out of major combat operations --- wisely, since that's exactly what ISIS wants --- and has kept itself to a more surgical role, disrupting transport routes, choking off oil sales, and sending in covert ops. Russia has taken on a more aggressive role, which has slowly become a quagmire. For all of Putin's tough talk (and for all that conservatives love him), Obama is playing the smarter game here. 0/3



4. The Supreme Court will declare that bans against same-sex marriage violate the Constitution.
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This wasn't the 7-2 slam dunk I thought it would be, but 5-4 is still a win. 1/4



5. Ebola will kill at least 100,000 people, mostly in West Africa.


Ebola was burning hot in West Africa when I predicted this, and I figured it would continue to burn hot as the world response would continue to be too-little-too-late. Then came two shocking events. First: the rest of the world, unbelievably, actually got their fucking acts together and poured resources into Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. Second, less believably, the scientific community quickly rolled out new treatments that appear to work very well. Guinea and Sierra Leone are now EVD-free, and Liberia should be declared Ebola-free next month. Additionally, several of the experimental Ebola vaccines have tested safe in humans appear to work at or near 100% effectiveness, so the next outbreak should be a lot easier to contain. In short, not only did we beat Ebola this time, we're now close to beating Ebola for good. 1/5



6. The Dow Jones Industrial Average will top 20,000.


This stock market turned out to be weaker than I thought, with everyone on edge that a rate hike is coming. One major exception: Amazon shares. 1/6



7. The Chicago Cubs will make it to the postseason.


They did, and they did it in style. They also managed to beat the hated Cardinals along the way. Sadly, they lost the NLCS to the Mets, who then went on to lose to the Kansas City Royals. 2/7



8. The Oregon Ducks will beat the Alabama Crimson Tide in the National College Championship Game.


Both the Ducks and the Crimson Tide looked red hot last year. Ohio State, which didn't look anywhere nearly as hot, got their acts together nonetheless, and beat the Tide AND the Ducks to become the first winner of the National College Championship Game. 2/8



9. The Seahawks will be repeat Super Bowl champions.


I maintain they would have repeated as Super Bowl Champions if Russell Wilson hadn't tried that final, and most monumentally stupid, pass of the game. 2/9