Prediction Scorecard for 2014

At the end of 2013 I presented you with my predictions for 2014. It turns out that my record this year was bloody awful. I predicted:

1. Neither the US House nor the US Senate will change hands.


2. Mitch McConnell will lose his Senate seat.


3. Wendy Davis will lose her bid to become Texas governor.


4. The major issues of 2014 will be guns and health care.


5. Oregon will become the first (and perhaps only) state to reverse its own anti-gay-marriage ballot measure by a subsequent ballot measure.


6. The US will start putting boots on the ground in East Africa


7. The US U3 unemployment rate will go below 6.5%.


8. The movement to divest from Israel will become a major news story.


9. Major reforms in surveillance methods will pass Congress.


10. George Zimmerman will have another run-in with the law.


11. Super Bowl XLVIII will be Denver versus Seattle.

Yeah. So, let's go over the agonizing details of what went wrong, shall we?

( Read more... )

Predictions for 2015

Earlier today (actually late last night), I posted my scorecard for my 2014 predictions. Now, here are my predictions for 2015. As usual, I'll grade myself on these a year from now -- but feel free to print them out or save a PDF to keep me honest!

1. Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush will declare their candidacies for the Presidency of the United States before April 1, and will quickly dominate their respective parties’ Presidential races.


2. ISIS will attempt a major terrorist attack on US soil.


3. The United States will begin major combat operations against ISIS before December 31.


4. The Supreme Court will declare that bans against same-sex marriage violate the Constitution.


5. Ebola will kill at least 100,000 people, mostly in West Africa.


6. The Dow Jones Industrial Average will top 20,000.


7. The Chicago Cubs will make it to the postseason.


8. The Oregon Ducks will beat the Alabama Crimson Tide in the National College Championship Game.


9. The Seahawks will be repeat Super Bowl champions.

Let's go into all of these in detail.

( Read more... )