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The Ebola Post, October Edition
Sep. 30th, 2014 11:16 pmA month ago I posted the original "Ebola Post" to capture my thoughts on the West Africa EVD plague. It's been a month since then, and the outbreak shows no signs of slowing. Here's where we are.
THE NUMBERS
On August 38th WHO recorded 3,069 cases of EVD. On September 29th the CDC reported 6574 cases with 3091 dead. The overwhelming majority of these cases are in the West African nations of Liberia and Sierra Leone. Cases double every 24.3 days or so, although the World Health Organization now puts the figure at doubling every 21 days. If the rate of increase doesn't change, we'll exceed 50,000 reported cases by December 31st, a million cases by next May, and a billion cases by Jan 1 2016.
THE GOOD NEWS
THE BAD NEWS
ANALYSIS
The simple fact is that we haven't dedicated nearly enough resources to fighting the Ebola plague. It's still expanding at an exponential rate, and any hope that we can prevent the spread to other nations, or even other continents, have been disproved. The main question is whether we can continue to halt outbreaks in the rest of the world until EVD burns through every last person in West Africa, or until we can develop a working vaccine.
PREDICTIONS
By October 31st, EVD cases will exceed 15,000 with 7,500 deaths. Almost all of these will be in West Africa. The flare-up in the Dallas will have been completely contained. The estimated cost to contain the epidemic will exceed $10 billion; world response will continue to be anemic at best.
THE NUMBERS
On August 38th WHO recorded 3,069 cases of EVD. On September 29th the CDC reported 6574 cases with 3091 dead. The overwhelming majority of these cases are in the West African nations of Liberia and Sierra Leone. Cases double every 24.3 days or so, although the World Health Organization now puts the figure at doubling every 21 days. If the rate of increase doesn't change, we'll exceed 50,000 reported cases by December 31st, a million cases by next May, and a billion cases by Jan 1 2016.
THE GOOD NEWS
- The nations of Nigeria and Senegal appear to have finally contained their EVD outbreaks.
- At least one candidate Ebola vaccine has been proven safe to humans. Whether it actually works is another matter, yet unsettled.
- One physician claims to have successfully treated 13 of 15 EVD patients with HIV retroviral drugs.
- EVD is now on the world's radar in earnest. The United States has pledged close to a billion dollars in support; billionaires are pledging tens of millions.
THE BAD NEWS
- CDC believes that cases may be vastly under-reported, by about a factor of ten.
- Civil society is breaking down in Liberia, as food and medical care have become scarce.
- A person in Dallas, Texas has been diagnosed with Ebola. This person flew to the US on September 19-20, came down with symptoms September 24th, went to the hospital, was sent home, returned to the hospital on September 26th, and was only then put under quarantine. It's almost certain others have been infected in the Dallas area. CDC is tracing contacts as I write this; hopefully they'll track them all down before the number of cases exceeds 25 or so. (Update 10/1: Dallas County HHS indicates that they've located and are monitoring 14 contacts, including health care workers. Ambulance crew tested negative, but one person is in quarantine.)
This is the second time that Ebola has struck in the United States --- the first was a harmless (to humans) strain that escaped a Virginia lab. This is also the second time that the West Africa Ebola plague has landed in another country via airplane.
ANALYSIS
The simple fact is that we haven't dedicated nearly enough resources to fighting the Ebola plague. It's still expanding at an exponential rate, and any hope that we can prevent the spread to other nations, or even other continents, have been disproved. The main question is whether we can continue to halt outbreaks in the rest of the world until EVD burns through every last person in West Africa, or until we can develop a working vaccine.
PREDICTIONS
By October 31st, EVD cases will exceed 15,000 with 7,500 deaths. Almost all of these will be in West Africa. The flare-up in the Dallas will have been completely contained. The estimated cost to contain the epidemic will exceed $10 billion; world response will continue to be anemic at best.
