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This weekend the newly revamped FiveThirtyEight.com released a new analysis of the 2014 Senate races that puts the odds of a Republican takeover of the US Senate at about 60%.
In response, the Democratic Party is slamming Nate Silver, which is an incredibly stupid response given Silver's track record.
What they ought to do is take the President's advice and start focusing on 2014 instead of chomping at the bit for 2016. For example, there are already groups raising money for Hillary Clinton's 2016 campaign. What I would suggest instead is that the DSCC/DNC start a 2014 Victory Fund focusing on the campaigns that Silver rates as between 80% and 20% likely for Democratic victory. Right now, those races are:
75% likelihood: New Hampshire, Iowa
60% likelihood: Colorado
55% likelihood: Michigan, Alaska
50% likelihood: North Carolina
45% likelihood: Louisiana
30% likelihood: Arkansas, Georgia
25% likelihood: Kentucky
20% likelihood: Montana
(From here)
You pour money into those, you raise the chances that the Democrats will win those races. Even a few percentage points in the Democrats' direction will raise the odds that they retain a slim 50 seat + Joe Biden majority in 2015-2016. By the way, you'd better believe the Republicans are doing exactly this with the exact opposite intent. In particular, if the Democrats are hoping that the Tea Party will nominate more Christie O'Donnells and Richard Mourdocks to destroy the GOP's chances in 2014, they're kidding themselves. The Tea Party hasn't learned, but the Republican establishment has.
In response, the Democratic Party is slamming Nate Silver, which is an incredibly stupid response given Silver's track record.
What they ought to do is take the President's advice and start focusing on 2014 instead of chomping at the bit for 2016. For example, there are already groups raising money for Hillary Clinton's 2016 campaign. What I would suggest instead is that the DSCC/DNC start a 2014 Victory Fund focusing on the campaigns that Silver rates as between 80% and 20% likely for Democratic victory. Right now, those races are:
75% likelihood: New Hampshire, Iowa
60% likelihood: Colorado
55% likelihood: Michigan, Alaska
50% likelihood: North Carolina
45% likelihood: Louisiana
30% likelihood: Arkansas, Georgia
25% likelihood: Kentucky
20% likelihood: Montana
(From here)
You pour money into those, you raise the chances that the Democrats will win those races. Even a few percentage points in the Democrats' direction will raise the odds that they retain a slim 50 seat + Joe Biden majority in 2015-2016. By the way, you'd better believe the Republicans are doing exactly this with the exact opposite intent. In particular, if the Democrats are hoping that the Tea Party will nominate more Christie O'Donnells and Richard Mourdocks to destroy the GOP's chances in 2014, they're kidding themselves. The Tea Party hasn't learned, but the Republican establishment has.
