maxomai: dog (dog)
The big news is that Senator Harry Reid (D-Nevada), the current Senate Minority Leader, has announced that he will not run for re-election in 2016.

As usual, this comes with good, bad, and ugly sides.

THE GOOD, for Democrats anyway, is that the timing of the announcement couldn't be better. Nevada is a razor-edge purple state such that Reid would have lost his last election (in 2010) if not for his GOTV machine. 2016 is a much more favorable environment for Democrats, as long as Hillary Clinton runs and the usual groups (OFA, DFA, MoveOn, etc.) are firing on all cylinders. They also have a popular candidate in recently retired Nevada Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto, whom Reid endorsed today.

THE BAD for Democrats is that this gives the GOP an opening to take this seat. Right now the GOP have a great candidate in the current Governor of Nevada, Brian Sandoval. He's enormously well-liked, and if he runs, even with all the advantages Cortez Masto has, it's going to be a toss-up. If he doesn't run, Cortez Masto is an easy favorite. So the GOP is going to work very hard to recruit him.

THE UGLY is that Reid has already endorsed his pick for the next Senate Majority Leader as of 2017, Chuck "I Love War and Gun Control" Schumer. Even without this endorsement, Schumer has seniority and is the most likely pick. Elizabeth Warren, the progressive favorite, has less than four years of seniority, so you can forget about her having a shot as Leader for a while. Those groans you hear are partisan Democrats being forced to bite the bullet and swallow yet another move by their party to the neoconservative center-right.
maxomai: dog (dog)
Now that FiveThirtyEight.com has gone all Huffpo, the Princeton Election Consortium is your new place for election poll analysis. In today's post, they explain the state of the Senate races:

Only four races - Kentucky, Iowa, Louisiana, and Colorado – have no clear leader at the moment. If we assign all the other races, that gives 48 Democrats/Independents and 48 Republicans.


They then go on to explain that of these elections, the most valuable votes --- in terms of determining which party controls the US Senate after 2014 --- are those cast in Kentucky.

Donate below for the most bang for your buck



There is an ActBlue page set up to donate money to those campaigns that have the most effect on who controls the Senate (Kentucky, but also Iowa, Colorado, Louisiana, Alaska and Arkansas). Billions of dollars (not joking) are already going into these races, but they can still use your help.

Impact on my 2014 Predictions



Back in December I predicted that McConnell would lose his seat, either to Grimes or to his Tea Party opponent. It looks from the PEC analysis that my prediction wasn't that far off base. This isn't certain victory by any shot, but it is a dead heat, which is the closest McConnell has come to losing his seat in decades. That prediction is still alive.
maxomai: dog (dog)
AP has called it: Newark, NJ mayor Cory Booker is the new US Senator from the state of New Jersey.

He was an awesome mayor. Now let's see him be an awesome Senator.
maxomai: dog (Default)
Senator Max Baucus (D-MT) is retiring.

What does this mean? Well:

The Good - This self-centered prick did more than anyone else to gut the most progressive elements out of Obamacare. He did this, in no small part, by dragging his feet as chair of the Senate Finance Committee. Now that he's out, the chair goes to Ron Wyden (D-OR), who's more in the center of his caucus where Baucus is more to the right.

The Bad - Montana is still a red state. Jon Tester won both his Senate elections by razor-thin margins. Markos Moulistas is drooling over the possibility that Governor Schweitzer will enter the race and hold that seat in 2014. I'm skeptical that he'll run, especially if Rehberg polls as strongly now as he did in 2011-2012 before Todd Akin opened his big mouth.

The Ugly - If Schweitzer doesn't run, that puts the Senate one step closer to Republican control in 2014.
maxomai: dog (Default)
It's Friday, and for most of us the work day is over, either just so or hours ago. Which means that we have time to sit back, relax, visit with friends, and ask ourselves that important question - who lost the week?

For my part, I believe that the Massachusetts Republican Party lost the week. I blogged about this earlier, but the Reader's Digest edition is that Scott Brown dropped out of the special election to take the Senate seat vacated by John Kerry. Before that decision, PPP had him as the front runner. Afterwards, the Republicans basically have nobody that can win that seat. Ed Markey will be the next Senator from Massachusetts if he can get his act together.

Honorable (yes, honorable mention) goes to those of us hoping for universal background checks. I believe the NRA signaled in their Senate testimony that they are going to score the vote for such background checks. If so, I think this is a stupid and pathetic move on the part of the NRA - coming out in support of universal background checks would have done something to salvage their image while contributing favorably to the problem of black market handguns in the inner cities. Unfortunately, they don't seem to agree, and so now the GOP faces a choice. They can buck the NRA and suffer the short term consequences in the next round of primaries, or stick with the NRA and suffer the long term consequences in the next few general elections. I still retain some hope that they'll do the right thing and not score universal background checks, but it's a thin hope right now.

A strong case can be made that everyone - and I mean everyone in the world - lost this week after Al Qaeda torched an ancient library in Timbuktu destroying thousands of priceless books and scrolls going back to the 13th Century. Because, you know, they have to destroy Islam in order to save it.

Dishonorable mention goes to Elect A New Congress SuperPAC, which ate the WRONG browniesposted a bizarre rant calling on people to boycott Beyonce and "this Jay-Z fellow" during their Super Bowl half time show, which said SuperPAC promises will be, and I quote, "in praise and celebration of the modern criminal police state," and, "completely at odds with liberty and in complete odds with me." This is in stark contrast to the previous year's Halftime show, which the SuperPAC founder called the "Satanic/Illuminati Super Bowl Half-Time Show.” I tuned in expecting just that, and was sorely disappointed.

Dishonorable mention also goes to Manti Te'o and Taylor Swift, jointly, for making me wonder whose love life is worse.

Another dishonorable mention goes to the People of New Jersey. As if they didn't suffer enough from Chris Christie, Hurrican Sandy, and the entire cast of the Jersey Shore, now they have to suffer one of the worst indignities of all - Geraldo Rivera running for Senate. If Jersey were a person, their autobiography would be the Book of Job.

But now I leave it to you, dear readers. Who do you think lost the week?
maxomai: dog (Default)
It's Friday, and for most of us the work day is over, either just so or hours ago. Which means that we have time to sit back, relax, visit with friends, and ask ourselves that important question - who lost the week?

For my part, I believe that the Massachusetts Republican Party lost the week. I blogged about this earlier, but the Reader's Digest edition is that Scott Brown dropped out of the special election to take the Senate seat vacated by John Kerry. Before that decision, PPP had him as the front runner. Afterwards, the Republicans basically have nobody that can win that seat. Ed Markey will be the next Senator from Massachusetts if he can get his act together.

Honorable (yes, honorable mention) goes to those of us hoping for universal background checks. I believe the NRA signaled in their Senate testimony that they are going to score the vote for such background checks. If so, I think this is a stupid and pathetic move on the part of the NRA - coming out in support of universal background checks would have done something to salvage their image while contributing favorably to the problem of black market handguns in the inner cities. Unfortunately, they don't seem to agree, and so now the GOP faces a choice. They can buck the NRA and suffer the short term consequences in the next round of primaries, or stick with the NRA and suffer the long term consequences in the next few general elections. I still retain some hope that they'll do the right thing and not score universal background checks, but it's a thin hope right now.

Dishonorable mention goes to Elect A New Congress SuperPAC, which ate the WRONG browniesposted a bizarre rant calling on people to boycott Beyonce and "this Jay-Z fellow" during their Super Bowl half time show, which said SuperPAC promises will be, and I quote, "in praise and celebration of the modern criminal police state," and, "completely at odds with liberty and in complete odds with me." This is in stark contrast to the previous year's Halftime show, which the SuperPAC founder called the "Satanic/Illuminati Super Bowl Half-Time Show.” I tuned in expecting just that, and was sorely disappointed.

Dishonorable mention also goes to Manti Te'o and Taylor Swift, jointly, for making me wonder whose love life is worse.

Another dishonorable mention goes to the People of New Jersey. As if they didn't suffer enough from Chris Christie, Hurrican Sandy, and the entire cast of the Jersey Shore, now they have to suffer one of the worst indignities of all - Geraldo Rivera running for Senate. If Jersey were a person, their autobiography would be the Book of Job.

But now I leave it to you, dear readers. Who do you think lost the week?
maxomai: dog (Default)
It's Friday, and for most of us the work day is over, either just so or hours ago. Which means that we have time to sit back, relax, visit with friends, and ask ourselves that important question - who lost the week?

For my part, I believe that the Massachusetts Republican Party lost the week. I blogged about this earlier, but the Reader's Digest edition is that Scott Brown dropped out of the special election to take the Senate seat vacated by John Kerry. Before that decision, PPP had him as the front runner. Afterwards, the Republicans basically have nobody that can win that seat. Ed Markey will be the next Senator from Massachusetts if he can get his act together.

Honorable (yes, honorable mention) goes to those of us hoping for universal background checks. I believe the NRA signaled in their Senate testimony that they are going to score the vote for such background checks. If so, I think this is a stupid and pathetic move on the part of the NRA - coming out in support of universal background checks would have done something to salvage their image while contributing favorably to the problem of black market handguns in the inner cities. Unfortunately, they don't seem to agree, and so now the GOP faces a choice. They can buck the NRA and suffer the short term consequences in the next round of primaries, or stick with the NRA and suffer the long term consequences in the next few general elections. I still retain some hope that they'll do the right thing and not score universal background checks, but it's a thin hope right now.

A strong case can be made that everyone - and I mean everyone in the world - lost this week after Al Qaeda torched an ancient library in Timbuktu destroying thousands of priceless books and scrolls going back to the 13th Century. Because, you know, they have to destroy Islam in order to save it.

Dishonorable mention goes to Elect A New Congress SuperPAC, which ate the WRONG browniesposted a bizarre rant calling on people to boycott Beyonce and "this Jay-Z fellow" during their Super Bowl half time show, which said SuperPAC promises will be, and I quote, "in praise and celebration of the modern criminal police state," and, "completely at odds with liberty and in complete odds with me." This is in stark contrast to the previous year's Halftime show, which the SuperPAC founder called the "Satanic/Illuminati Super Bowl Half-Time Show.” I tuned in expecting just that, and was sorely disappointed.

Dishonorable mention also goes to Manti Te'o and Taylor Swift, jointly, for making me wonder whose love life is worse.

Another dishonorable mention goes to the People of New Jersey. As if they didn't suffer enough from Chris Christie, Hurrican Sandy, and the entire cast of the Jersey Shore, now they have to suffer one of the worst indignities of all - Geraldo Rivera running for Senate. If Jersey were a person, their autobiography would be the Book of Job.

But now I leave it to you, dear readers. Who do you think lost the week?
maxomai: dog (Default)
Former US Senator Scott Brown, who recently lost badly to Harvard professor and current US Senator Elizabeth Warren, was, via PPP, the front runner to win the special election to fill the Senate seat vacated by John Kerry. On the other hand, he also stood a good chance to win the 2014 Massachusetts Gubernatorial election. It all basically came down to what he wants to do.

Today, Scott Brown made his choice.

"I was not at all certain that a third Senate campaign in less than four years, and the prospect of returning to a Congress even more partisan than the one I left, was really the best way for me to continue in public service at this time. And I know it’s not the only way for me to advance the ideals and causes that matter most to me," Brown said in a statement. "That is why I am announcing today that I will not be a candidate for the United States Senate in the upcoming special election."


So, what does this mean?


  • The MAGOP doesn't really have a lot of other options to run for that seat, so whoever wins the Democratic Primary is automatically the front-runner. Right now, that person is likely to be Ed Markey, provided that he gets his shit together, fast. (Seriously, Markey, don't choke. Remember the lessons of 2010.)

  • This doesn't raise his chances to be Massachusetts's next Governor. We still have to see whether he decides to run for that seat, or to bow out of politics altogether. Honestly, I wouldn't put it past him to bow out, particularly if the conservative money just isn't there anymore.

  • Last but not least, another prediction bites the dust.

maxomai: dog (Default)
John Kerry is our new Secretary of State, and Governor Patrick has picked his interim replacement (Mo Cowan). The actual replacement for John Kerry needs to be chosen in a special election, and that will happen in June.

I said last month that Scott Brown, whom Elizabeth Warren defeated in November, would win this special election. PPP confirms that, if he runs, he would be the front runner.

MA-SEN
N = 763

Brown (R) 48
Markey (D) 45

Brown (R) 48
Lynch (D) 38


Markey is the stronger Democrat in this race, and he could still win with a sufficient effort. But Brown still has the edge.

In fact, I'd say that the most important factor right now in whether Brown is the next non-interim Senator from Massachusetts ... is whether he runs for Governor. And that Governor's race must look tempting.

MA-GOV
N = 763

Brown (R) 49
Berwick (D) 32

Brown (R) 48
Grossman (D) 37

Brown (R) 49
Ortiz (D) 32

The Governor's race, by the way, is not until November 2014. Meanwhile, the Senate race is in five months .. and then he has to run for that same Senate seat again in November 2014. To me, if I trust PPP, this decision is a no-brainer; but if I really, really want to be in the Senate....
maxomai: (typewriter guy wtf)
So pretty much everyone knows that Todd Akin, Republican candidate for US Senate from the Great State of Missouri, said this on Sunday:

“It seems to be, first of all, from what I understand from doctors, [becoming pregnant as the result of rape is] really rare. If it’s a legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to shut the whole thing down.” (NYT)


This statement has the advantages of being, simultaneously, politically incorrect, victim-blaming, weirdly slut-shaming, a window into the psyche of the Christian right (2), and completely wrong on the facts. In the last 24 hours it's been The Political Story in the United States. But has it hurt his chances?

Well, thanks to a poll taken just yesterday, we have some idea, kinda. Or, actually, we don't, as I'll argue below.

Via PPP:

Akin (R) 44
McCaskill (D, inc) 43
MOE 4

Akin barely leads McCaskill here, but look at the results for questions 8 and 11 (PDF):

Q8 Who did you vote for President in 2008?

John McCain...................................................49%
Barack Obama................................................44%
Someone else/Don'tremember...................... 7%

Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3.

Democrat ........................................................ 30%
Republican ...................................................... 39%
Independent/Other .......................................... 32%


In 2008, John McCain won Missouri by a tenth of a percentage point of the vote total. And in 2010, a year that was much more favorable to Republicans than 2012 is going to be, the turnout was 34% Democratic, 37% Republican, 28% Independent. If we play with the cross-tabs, we can predict what the results would be if the turnout in November matches the partisan mix we saw in 2010:

Akin: 45
McCaskill: 46

Between this, and the methodological problems involved with a snap, one-day-only poll, it's reasonable to reject this poll.

The Democrats and the Republicans both have smart people looking at this race. Both parties know, I believe, that Akin is a complete dog of a candidate right now. For the Republicans, the situation is more dire. They want control of the Senate, and without a win in Missouri this becomes next to impossible. Missouri and DC Republicans have to believe that they could do better with Tracy FlickSarah Steelman now. The best way to replace Akin is for him to voluntarily drop out of the race by 5:00 PM CDT today. Barring that, the GOP will have to get a court order, or just live with Akin. Needless to say, the Republican Apparatus has been pressuring Akin to drop out of the Senate race and backed up their words by yanking their money. The Democrats, for their part, have an anti-Akin ad buy lined up for later this week.

All of this makes this PPP poll result especially dangerous for the GOP. Despite all its flaws, there's a good chance that Akin, darling of the Tea Party, will look at this poll from a normally lean-Democratic outfit, and conclude that he still dominates this race. The fact that he's putting out a new TV ad asking for forgiveness for his obnoxious, provably wrong statements, leads me to believe that he's still leaning towards staying in the race. If he does, I think he has a very hard road ahead.

(EDIT: in fact he cited this poll this morning on Mike Huckabee's radio show, as one of the main reasons he's staying in.)

By the way, you can donate to Todd Akin's opponent, Claire McCaskill, here.
maxomai: (typewriter guy wtf)
So pretty much everyone knows that Todd Akin, Republican candidate for US Senate from the Great State of Missouri, said this on Sunday:

“It seems to be, first of all, from what I understand from doctors, [becoming pregnant as the result of rape is] really rare. If it’s a legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to shut the whole thing down.” (NYT)


This statement has the advantages of being, simultaneously, politically incorrect, victim-blaming, weirdly slut-shaming, a window into the psyche of the Christian right (2), and completely wrong on the facts. In the last 24 hours it's been The Political Story in the United States. But has it hurt his chances?

Well, thanks to a poll taken just yesterday, we have some idea, kinda. Or, actually, we don't, as I'll argue below.

Via PPP:

Akin (R) 44
McCaskill (D, inc) 43
MOE 4

Akin barely leads McCaskill here, but look at the results for questions 8 and 11 (PDF):

Q8 Who did you vote for President in 2008?

John McCain...................................................49%
Barack Obama................................................44%
Someone else/Don'tremember...................... 7%

Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3.

Democrat ........................................................ 30%
Republican ...................................................... 39%
Independent/Other .......................................... 32%


In 2008, John McCain won Missouri by a tenth of a percentage point of the vote total. And in 2010, a year that was much more favorable to Republicans than 2012 is going to be, the turnout was 34% Democratic, 37% Republican, 28% Independent. If we play with the cross-tabs, we can predict what the results would be if the turnout in November matches the partisan mix we saw in 2010:

Akin: 45
McCaskill: 46

Between this, and the methodological problems involved with a snap, one-day-only poll, it's reasonable to reject this poll.

The Democrats and the Republicans both have smart people looking at this race. Both parties know, I believe, that Akin is a complete dog of a candidate right now. For the Republicans, the situation is more dire. They want control of the Senate, and without a win in Missouri this becomes next to impossible. Missouri and DC Republicans have to believe that they could do better with Tracy FlickSarah Steelman now. The best way to replace Akin is for him to voluntarily drop out of the race by 5:00 PM CDT today. Barring that, the GOP will have to get a court order, or just live with Akin. Needless to say, the Republican Apparatus has been pressuring Akin to drop out of the Senate race and backed up their words by yanking their money. The Democrats, for their part, have an anti-Akin ad buy lined up for later this week.

All of this makes this PPP poll result especially dangerous for the GOP. Despite all its flaws, there's a good chance that Akin, darling of the Tea Party, will look at this poll from a normally lean-Democratic outfit, and conclude that he still dominates this race. The fact that he's putting out a new TV ad asking for forgiveness for his obnoxious, provably wrong statements, leads me to believe that he's still leaning towards staying in the race. If he does, I think he has a very hard road ahead.

(EDIT: in fact he cited this poll this morning on Mike Huckabee's radio show, as one of the main reasons he's staying in.)

By the way, you can donate to Todd Akin's opponent, Claire McCaskill, here.
maxomai: dog (Default)
Right now I'm cracking up at the Tea Party telling themselves that Liberals just LURV Senator Dick Lugar (R-IN) over Koch Brothers puppet Richard Mourlock. For example:


"This is whats going to happen: Lugar will get pramried out and Mourdock will win the election. Because real americans will always vote for a genuine conservative, not some Soros-funded communist who hates america and supports islam!" - From Saturday hate mail-a-palooza: Hitching up with a Republican senator, of the front page of DailyKos

"This is all economics 101 for Republicans, but I guess they feel they can say anything to an audience of Democrats, as long as they serve the purpose of reelecting an 80-year old liberal." - from The Ultimate Treachery, a diary on RedState

"Lugar is a an Loony Left Liberal Lemming Drone." - Michael Gaines, from this FaceBook thread.

"Why should Hoosiers trust Lugar to lead the charge on health care? He has partnered with liberals to pass their plans, he has supported mandates, and he has cosponsored big entitlement spending. This year’s elections will be a referendum on ObamaCare, but unlike Richard Mourdock, Dick Lugar hasn’t even signed onto the Repeal ObamaCare pledge!" - Daniel Anderson, FreedomWorks for America


Part of the reason why this shit cracks me up is because I and many other liberals worked to defeat Dick Lugar in the past. In my own case we tried in 1994, and failed, because that's what happens when you try to defeat a well-liked Republican in a Republican wave year.

Part of the reason I'm guffawing at the gullible is that Lugar, like most of the rest of the Republican bloc, has been in lockstep opposition to everything President Obama has proposed from day one. It might make a difference to the Koch Brothers, who would prefer a controllable ally to an independent one, as to which Republican gets that seat, but it makes no difference to the Democrats, and little to Obama's agenda.

But, really, most of the reason why this cracks me up is that I and a lot of other partisan Democrats have been cheering on Mourlock over Lugar for months now. Why, you ask, would we do this? Here's why:

Donnelly (D) 29
Lugar (R) 42

Donnelly (D) 34
Mourlock (R) 28
Source: The Hill

Granted: this is just one poll, taken before much attention has been paid to the general election. But it shows Mourlock's basic problem. He's not a known quantity the same way that Lugar is. This gives Donnelly a much, much better chance of winning this seat than he would have if the Republicans nominate Lugar again. His odds aren't great, but given the stakes, I'd take Mourlock as an opponent over Lugar any time.
maxomai: dog (Default)
Right now I'm cracking up at the Tea Party telling themselves that Liberals just LURV Senator Dick Lugar (R-IN) over Koch Brothers puppet Richard Mourlock. For example:


"This is whats going to happen: Lugar will get pramried out and Mourdock will win the election. Because real americans will always vote for a genuine conservative, not some Soros-funded communist who hates america and supports islam!" - From Saturday hate mail-a-palooza: Hitching up with a Republican senator, of the front page of DailyKos

"This is all economics 101 for Republicans, but I guess they feel they can say anything to an audience of Democrats, as long as they serve the purpose of reelecting an 80-year old liberal." - from The Ultimate Treachery, a diary on RedState

"Lugar is a an Loony Left Liberal Lemming Drone." - Michael Gaines, from this FaceBook thread.

"Why should Hoosiers trust Lugar to lead the charge on health care? He has partnered with liberals to pass their plans, he has supported mandates, and he has cosponsored big entitlement spending. This year’s elections will be a referendum on ObamaCare, but unlike Richard Mourdock, Dick Lugar hasn’t even signed onto the Repeal ObamaCare pledge!" - Daniel Anderson, FreedomWorks for America


Part of the reason why this shit cracks me up is because I and many other liberals worked to defeat Dick Lugar in the past. In my own case we tried in 1994, and failed, because that's what happens when you try to defeat a well-liked Republican in a Republican wave year.

Part of the reason I'm guffawing at the gullible is that Lugar, like most of the rest of the Republican bloc, has been in lockstep opposition to everything President Obama has proposed from day one. It might make a difference to the Koch Brothers, who would prefer a controllable ally to an independent one, as to which Republican gets that seat, but it makes no difference to the Democrats, and little to Obama's agenda.

But, really, most of the reason why this cracks me up is that I and a lot of other partisan Democrats have been cheering on Mourlock over Lugar for months now. Why, you ask, would we do this? Here's why:

Donnelly (D) 29
Lugar (R) 42

Donnelly (D) 34
Mourlock (R) 28
Source: The Hill

Granted: this is just one poll, taken before much attention has been paid to the general election. But it shows Mourlock's basic problem. He's not a known quantity the same way that Lugar is. This gives Donnelly a much, much better chance of winning this seat than he would have if the Republicans nominate Lugar again. His odds aren't great, but given the stakes, I'd take Mourlock as an opponent over Lugar any time.
maxomai: dog (Default)

Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) has decided not to run for re-election in 2012. More here.


If she ran, and won her primary, she would be a shoo-in. Unfortunately for her, the Tea Party hates Hutchison, and this is reflected in her approval rating among Republicans. Depending on how the primary goes, this could turn into an interesting pick-up opportunity for Democrats.








maxomai: dog (Default)

Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) has decided not to run for re-election in 2012. More here.


If she ran, and won her primary, she would be a shoo-in. Unfortunately for her, the Tea Party hates Hutchison, and this is reflected in her approval rating among Republicans. Depending on how the primary goes, this could turn into an interesting pick-up opportunity for Democrats.








maxomai: dog (Default)

Election day is next Tuesday, and we’re coming up on the point where it’s pretty easy to see what will happen. With that in mind, here’s what I’m predicting will happen on Nov. 2nd.


THE HOUSE is going to go Republican. I’m not really out on a limb in saying this: pretty much every poll watcher out there predicts that about 50-60 seats will switch hands. Daily Kos front-pagers like to point out that Nate Silver gives the Democrats a roughly one-in-six chance of holding on to the House. Those numbers are not what I’d call confidence-inspiring.


More recently, SUSA has started polling races including households that are cell-phone-only, and they are picking up a small but measurable difference from polls that are land-line only. This difference could be worth two points — enough to greatly improve the Democrats’ chances of holding the House. Again, I wouldn’t hold my breath.


As far as specific races go, I think Democrats will hold OR-1, OR-4, OR-5, ND-AL and NH-2. I’ll also go out on a limb and predict that they hold FL-8, with Alan Grayson motivating Democrats in his district far beyond national levels. I think the GOP will win WA-3.


THE SENATE Recent polling in California and Washington gives the Democrats much better chances there. Nate Silver gives the GOP about a 10% chance to take control of the Senate, and both he and the polling averages predict the Democrats holding 52 seats. I am going to go out on a limb and predict that the Democrats will have 54 seats next year, winning two of the following four by a narrow margin: Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, Pennsylvania. I had hoped that Rand Paul would implode in Kentucky, and it looked like that might happen when late September polling showed a statistical dead heat. Rand Paul has pulled ahead, however, and I think it’s because Conway’s Aquabuddha ad fell flat. Apparently, not being a dyed-in-the-wool Christian is also Okay If You’re A Republican. As for the three-way races in Alaska and Florida, those are going to Murkowski (I) and Rubio (R), respectively. My guess is that Murkowski will continue to caucus with the Republicans even after they stripped her of her committee assignments.


GOVERNOR’S RACES Here the Democrats are going to get clobbered. Nate Silver predicts that the GOP will control 30 seats next year, and I think that’s a safe bet. The Democrats will win in California, Oregon, Colorado, Minnesota, Vermont, Connecticut and Massachusetts. I think Rick Scott (R) will win in Florida after African American voters, angry at stories that Bill Clinton allegedly tried to get Kendrick Meek to drop out, punish the Democrats by declining to vote for Alex Sink (D). Lincoln Chafee (I) is going to win in Rhode Island; his opposition is a blue dog Democrat and a teabag Republican, and Chafee, although a former Republican, is easily more liberal than either one of them. Finally, I don’t think Pat Quinn (D) will be able to pull it out in Illinois. (I admit that part of my pessimism about Quinn stems from my strong dislike of his antics in the 1970s and 1980s.)


Feel free to offer your own predictions in the comments.








Originally published at maxomai.org

maxomai: dog (Default)

Election day is next Tuesday, and we’re coming up on the point where it’s pretty easy to see what will happen. With that in mind, here’s what I’m predicting will happen on Nov. 2nd.


THE HOUSE is going to go Republican. I’m not really out on a limb in saying this: pretty much every poll watcher out there predicts that about 50-60 seats will switch hands. Daily Kos front-pagers like to point out that Nate Silver gives the Democrats a roughly one-in-six chance of holding on to the House. Those numbers are not what I’d call confidence-inspiring.


More recently, SUSA has started polling races including households that are cell-phone-only, and they are picking up a small but measurable difference from polls that are land-line only. This difference could be worth two points — enough to greatly improve the Democrats’ chances of holding the House. Again, I wouldn’t hold my breath.


As far as specific races go, I think Democrats will hold OR-1, OR-4, OR-5, ND-AL and NH-2. I’ll also go out on a limb and predict that they hold FL-8, with Alan Grayson motivating Democrats in his district far beyond national levels. I think the GOP will win WA-3.


THE SENATE Recent polling in California and Washington gives the Democrats much better chances there. Nate Silver gives the GOP about a 10% chance to take control of the Senate, and both he and the polling averages predict the Democrats holding 52 seats. I am going to go out on a limb and predict that the Democrats will have 54 seats next year, winning two of the following four by a narrow margin: Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, Pennsylvania. I had hoped that Rand Paul would implode in Kentucky, and it looked like that might happen when late September polling showed a statistical dead heat. Rand Paul has pulled ahead, however, and I think it’s because Conway’s Aquabuddha ad fell flat. Apparently, not being a dyed-in-the-wool Christian is also Okay If You’re A Republican. As for the three-way races in Alaska and Florida, those are going to Murkowski (I) and Rubio (R), respectively. My guess is that Murkowski will continue to caucus with the Republicans even after they stripped her of her committee assignments.


GOVERNOR’S RACES Here the Democrats are going to get clobbered. Nate Silver predicts that the GOP will control 30 seats next year, and I think that’s a safe bet. The Democrats will win in California, Oregon, Colorado, Minnesota, Vermont, Connecticut and Massachusetts. I think Rick Scott (R) will win in Florida after African American voters, angry at stories that Bill Clinton allegedly tried to get Kendrick Meek to drop out, punish the Democrats by declining to vote for Alex Sink (D). Lincoln Chafee (I) is going to win in Rhode Island; his opposition is a blue dog Democrat and a teabag Republican, and Chafee, although a former Republican, is easily more liberal than either one of them. Finally, I don’t think Pat Quinn (D) will be able to pull it out in Illinois. (I admit that part of my pessimism about Quinn stems from my strong dislike of his antics in the 1970s and 1980s.)


Feel free to offer your own predictions in the comments.








Originally published at maxomai.org

maxomai: dog (Default)

Apparently, Rand Paul’s supporters don’t like it when people point out that Rand Paul is a corporate shill. In fact, pointing that out can get your head stomped on.


Outside the Conway-Paul debate, a Rand Paul supporter pulled the woman’s blonde wig off and stomped on her head. …


“I’m here to present Rand Paul with the ‘Employee of the Month’ award, however his supporters were not very nice to me and my message which is same as everyone else. I got my head stepped on and I have a bit of a headache,” said Lauren Valle, MoveOn.org.


TPM adds:


As the candidates arrived, a group of Paul supporters pulled a female MoveOn member to the ground and held her there as another Paul supporter stomped on the back of her head and neck.


You can watch the video of the incident here. It does make me wonder whether they’d have tried that shit if they thought she might have been armed.


Rand Paul is currently leading Jack Conway by about five points in the latest poll averages, which gives him a really good shot at winning this thing. Which is too bad, because as much as Conway’s recent display of in-your-face Christianity irks me, Paul increasingly strikes me as a corporate huckster who’s capitalizing on his dad’s name. Fortunately, this kind of crap is sure to hurt Rand Paul at the last minute.


If you’d like to help make sure that Paul never gets to the Senate, I’d suggest giving Conway some love.








Originally published at maxomai.org

maxomai: dog (Default)

Apparently, Rand Paul’s supporters don’t like it when people point out that Rand Paul is a corporate shill. In fact, pointing that out can get your head stomped on.


Outside the Conway-Paul debate, a Rand Paul supporter pulled the woman’s blonde wig off and stomped on her head. …


“I’m here to present Rand Paul with the ‘Employee of the Month’ award, however his supporters were not very nice to me and my message which is same as everyone else. I got my head stepped on and I have a bit of a headache,” said Lauren Valle, MoveOn.org.


TPM adds:


As the candidates arrived, a group of Paul supporters pulled a female MoveOn member to the ground and held her there as another Paul supporter stomped on the back of her head and neck.


You can watch the video of the incident here. It does make me wonder whether they’d have tried that shit if they thought she might have been armed.


Rand Paul is currently leading Jack Conway by about five points in the latest poll averages, which gives him a really good shot at winning this thing. Which is too bad, because as much as Conway’s recent display of in-your-face Christianity irks me, Paul increasingly strikes me as a corporate huckster who’s capitalizing on his dad’s name. Fortunately, this kind of crap is sure to hurt Rand Paul at the last minute.


If you’d like to help make sure that Paul never gets to the Senate, I’d suggest giving Conway some love.








Originally published at maxomai.org

maxomai: dog (Default)

Early voting so far in 2010 looks like it follows 2006 patterns, which has me very cautiously optimistic that this might not be that bad a year for Democrats.


One major exception is in Florida, where:


Sarasota Democratic Party chairwoman Rita Ferrandino admits there was an initial panic that set it when she saw only 30 percent Democrats in the early-voting numbers. But the more she has investigated what is going on, the more she is convinced that the U.S. Senate race is causing the voter turnout disparity for Democrats.


Ferrandino said many of the county’s best Democratic voters — those who never miss an election — report to her that they are holding off in case Democrat Kendrick Meek or independent Charlie Crist drop out of the Senate race against Republican Marco Rubio.


I can’t blame those voters — if I were them, I’d want the best chance possible to stop Rubio from getting to the Senate, too. Thing is, early voting is what makes it possible to avoid vote suppression charlie foxtrots on November 2nd. Neither Meek nor Crist is likely to drop out, and the longer these solid voters wait, the less likely it is that they’ll vote. That makes all the difference in a close races for Governor and for FL-8 (Alan Grayson‘s seat).


And that assumes that Ferrandino’s relatively rosy analysis is right.








Originally published at maxomai.org

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