maxomai: dog (dog)
I predicted that Oregon would beat Alabama to win the national championship.

I was wrong.

Congratulations, Ohio State. See you in Texas on the 12th.

Go Ducks!
maxomai: dog (dog)
Much has been made of the #1 offense in the NFL (the Broncos) playing the #1 defense in the NFL (the Seahawks).

The thing is, it's not just the Broncos' offense playing the Seahawks' defense, is it? It's also the Broncos' defense (ranked #18 for points allowed) against the Seahawks' offense (#8 for points per game). I suspect that an okay offense versus a mediocre defense will score enough points so that a number one offense versus a number one defense won't matter much. I give the Seahawks a mild advantage here.
maxomai: dog (dog)
Last month I posted my predictions for 2014, which included, at Prediction #11, that the Broncos and the Seahawks would go to the Super Bowl. The Broncos just beat the Patriots to advance to the Super Bowl, so that prediction is now officially half-right. Now let's see whether the Seahawks beat the 49ers to make the prediction come 100% true.

EDIT And with 22 seconds left, the Seahawks get an interception that ends the game. It's a Seahawks-Broncos Super Bowl, and my 11th prediction has come to pass!
maxomai: dog (dog)
Seattle Seahawks 23
New Orleans Saints 15


This was a tough one for me, emotionally speaking, because I really like both teams. But New Orleans made a series of mental mistakes that sealed their fate, the last of which was when a receiver attempted an illegal forward pass instead of doing the smart thing and just running out of bounds.

Patriots 43
Colts 22


I thought Andrew Luck would put on a better performance. I was disappointed. On the other hand, when's the last time Tom Brady got no touchdown passes? In fact, holy shit, are the Patriots a running team now?

San Francisco 49ers 23
Carolina Panthers 10


Cam Newton is a hell of a quarterback. The fact that he led the Panthers this far speaks to that. But he got to a lousy start with that interception and never recovered. Kaepernick was just on fire with his running game. Parenthetically, all the talk about how Rivera and Harbaugh played under Mike Ditka made me feel old. Harbaugh is still the New Guy to me.

Denver Broncos 24
San Diego Chargers 17


I'm not sure whether Peyton Manning was just a better quarterback or the Chargers lost this on penalties. Either way, Manning looked good enough out there.

So, we're down to three more NFL games that matter, and my prediction of a Seahawks-Broncos Super Bowl is still intact. Here's where we are next week:

Patriots v. Broncos: this is presently looking a bit like My Shoe v. Ant. If the Broncos shut down the Patriots' running game, Brady can just go back to his awesome passing game, and vice versa. Nonetheless, I hold out a slim, perhaps vain hope, that Peyton Manning will pull a rabbit out of his hat and save my prediction of a Broncos-Seahawks Super Bowl.

Seahawks v. 49ers: This is looking like a more competitive game, with the Seahawks having home field advantage. My Seattle friends - most of whom are not football fans - should be wary next Sunday. This is a bitter rivalry, and emotions are going to run very high.
maxomai: dog (Default)
It's Friday, and for most of us the work day is over, either just so or hours ago. Which means that we have time to sit back, relax, visit with friends, and ask ourselves that important question - who lost the week?

For my part, I believe that the Massachusetts Republican Party lost the week. I blogged about this earlier, but the Reader's Digest edition is that Scott Brown dropped out of the special election to take the Senate seat vacated by John Kerry. Before that decision, PPP had him as the front runner. Afterwards, the Republicans basically have nobody that can win that seat. Ed Markey will be the next Senator from Massachusetts if he can get his act together.

Honorable (yes, honorable mention) goes to those of us hoping for universal background checks. I believe the NRA signaled in their Senate testimony that they are going to score the vote for such background checks. If so, I think this is a stupid and pathetic move on the part of the NRA - coming out in support of universal background checks would have done something to salvage their image while contributing favorably to the problem of black market handguns in the inner cities. Unfortunately, they don't seem to agree, and so now the GOP faces a choice. They can buck the NRA and suffer the short term consequences in the next round of primaries, or stick with the NRA and suffer the long term consequences in the next few general elections. I still retain some hope that they'll do the right thing and not score universal background checks, but it's a thin hope right now.

A strong case can be made that everyone - and I mean everyone in the world - lost this week after Al Qaeda torched an ancient library in Timbuktu destroying thousands of priceless books and scrolls going back to the 13th Century. Because, you know, they have to destroy Islam in order to save it.

Dishonorable mention goes to Elect A New Congress SuperPAC, which ate the WRONG browniesposted a bizarre rant calling on people to boycott Beyonce and "this Jay-Z fellow" during their Super Bowl half time show, which said SuperPAC promises will be, and I quote, "in praise and celebration of the modern criminal police state," and, "completely at odds with liberty and in complete odds with me." This is in stark contrast to the previous year's Halftime show, which the SuperPAC founder called the "Satanic/Illuminati Super Bowl Half-Time Show.” I tuned in expecting just that, and was sorely disappointed.

Dishonorable mention also goes to Manti Te'o and Taylor Swift, jointly, for making me wonder whose love life is worse.

Another dishonorable mention goes to the People of New Jersey. As if they didn't suffer enough from Chris Christie, Hurrican Sandy, and the entire cast of the Jersey Shore, now they have to suffer one of the worst indignities of all - Geraldo Rivera running for Senate. If Jersey were a person, their autobiography would be the Book of Job.

But now I leave it to you, dear readers. Who do you think lost the week?
maxomai: dog (Default)
It's Friday, and for most of us the work day is over, either just so or hours ago. Which means that we have time to sit back, relax, visit with friends, and ask ourselves that important question - who lost the week?

For my part, I believe that the Massachusetts Republican Party lost the week. I blogged about this earlier, but the Reader's Digest edition is that Scott Brown dropped out of the special election to take the Senate seat vacated by John Kerry. Before that decision, PPP had him as the front runner. Afterwards, the Republicans basically have nobody that can win that seat. Ed Markey will be the next Senator from Massachusetts if he can get his act together.

Honorable (yes, honorable mention) goes to those of us hoping for universal background checks. I believe the NRA signaled in their Senate testimony that they are going to score the vote for such background checks. If so, I think this is a stupid and pathetic move on the part of the NRA - coming out in support of universal background checks would have done something to salvage their image while contributing favorably to the problem of black market handguns in the inner cities. Unfortunately, they don't seem to agree, and so now the GOP faces a choice. They can buck the NRA and suffer the short term consequences in the next round of primaries, or stick with the NRA and suffer the long term consequences in the next few general elections. I still retain some hope that they'll do the right thing and not score universal background checks, but it's a thin hope right now.

Dishonorable mention goes to Elect A New Congress SuperPAC, which ate the WRONG browniesposted a bizarre rant calling on people to boycott Beyonce and "this Jay-Z fellow" during their Super Bowl half time show, which said SuperPAC promises will be, and I quote, "in praise and celebration of the modern criminal police state," and, "completely at odds with liberty and in complete odds with me." This is in stark contrast to the previous year's Halftime show, which the SuperPAC founder called the "Satanic/Illuminati Super Bowl Half-Time Show.” I tuned in expecting just that, and was sorely disappointed.

Dishonorable mention also goes to Manti Te'o and Taylor Swift, jointly, for making me wonder whose love life is worse.

Another dishonorable mention goes to the People of New Jersey. As if they didn't suffer enough from Chris Christie, Hurrican Sandy, and the entire cast of the Jersey Shore, now they have to suffer one of the worst indignities of all - Geraldo Rivera running for Senate. If Jersey were a person, their autobiography would be the Book of Job.

But now I leave it to you, dear readers. Who do you think lost the week?
maxomai: dog (Default)
It's Friday, and for most of us the work day is over, either just so or hours ago. Which means that we have time to sit back, relax, visit with friends, and ask ourselves that important question - who lost the week?

For my part, I believe that the Massachusetts Republican Party lost the week. I blogged about this earlier, but the Reader's Digest edition is that Scott Brown dropped out of the special election to take the Senate seat vacated by John Kerry. Before that decision, PPP had him as the front runner. Afterwards, the Republicans basically have nobody that can win that seat. Ed Markey will be the next Senator from Massachusetts if he can get his act together.

Honorable (yes, honorable mention) goes to those of us hoping for universal background checks. I believe the NRA signaled in their Senate testimony that they are going to score the vote for such background checks. If so, I think this is a stupid and pathetic move on the part of the NRA - coming out in support of universal background checks would have done something to salvage their image while contributing favorably to the problem of black market handguns in the inner cities. Unfortunately, they don't seem to agree, and so now the GOP faces a choice. They can buck the NRA and suffer the short term consequences in the next round of primaries, or stick with the NRA and suffer the long term consequences in the next few general elections. I still retain some hope that they'll do the right thing and not score universal background checks, but it's a thin hope right now.

A strong case can be made that everyone - and I mean everyone in the world - lost this week after Al Qaeda torched an ancient library in Timbuktu destroying thousands of priceless books and scrolls going back to the 13th Century. Because, you know, they have to destroy Islam in order to save it.

Dishonorable mention goes to Elect A New Congress SuperPAC, which ate the WRONG browniesposted a bizarre rant calling on people to boycott Beyonce and "this Jay-Z fellow" during their Super Bowl half time show, which said SuperPAC promises will be, and I quote, "in praise and celebration of the modern criminal police state," and, "completely at odds with liberty and in complete odds with me." This is in stark contrast to the previous year's Halftime show, which the SuperPAC founder called the "Satanic/Illuminati Super Bowl Half-Time Show.” I tuned in expecting just that, and was sorely disappointed.

Dishonorable mention also goes to Manti Te'o and Taylor Swift, jointly, for making me wonder whose love life is worse.

Another dishonorable mention goes to the People of New Jersey. As if they didn't suffer enough from Chris Christie, Hurrican Sandy, and the entire cast of the Jersey Shore, now they have to suffer one of the worst indignities of all - Geraldo Rivera running for Senate. If Jersey were a person, their autobiography would be the Book of Job.

But now I leave it to you, dear readers. Who do you think lost the week?
maxomai: dog (Default)
To my mind, the big loser this week was the mentally ill of New York State. Now when they go to the shrink to talk about why they want to kill themselves or others, they end up being reported to the State. How many of them are going to put off therapy to avoid getting a black mark on their permanent record?

That said, there are a number of dishonorable mentions that are more deserving, even if they aren't losing as badly.

Take Manti Te'o for example. The Notre Dame linebacker, by far the best defensive player in college football, is on his way to the NFL and a multi-million dollar paycheck. Unfortunately, he, the Notre Dame Football organization, and the professional sports media nationwide, were all sucked in by the tear-jerking story of a brilliant girlfriend at Stanford who died of cancer. I say sucked in, because the whole story turns out to be an elaborate hoax, which was uncovered by a website earlier this week. One could argue that they are all the week's losers, and I would not disagree.

New Orleans Ex-Mayor Ray Nagin deserves dishonorable mention, of course. The former mayor, who was originally elected on an anti-corruption platform, was just indicted today - for corruption. Gotta love New Orleans.

Another huge dishonorable mention goes to the officials who oversaw the Seahawks-Falcons game. Okay, arguably the Seahawks were the loser, but the dishonor belongs to the officials, after the Seahawks lost the game, and ended their season, after a bad call gave the Falcons another shot at a missed, last-minute field goal. To put it mildly, my Facebook friends were displeased.

If you're one of thousands of people trying to purchase high capacity magazines right now, then you're a loser too, because prices are ten times what they used to be. For example: Cheaper Than Dirt had announced a few days ago that magazines were back in stock. The response crashed the website, and a few hours later, they were gone, except for a few Colt magazines selling for over $100 each. If you're one of these buyers, you might want to consider packing it up, selling your overpriced rifles and mags, and following Alphageek's advice: a lever-action .30-30 or .357 rifle with a dot sight is sufficient for your needs.

Finally, if you're one of millions of NoMeansNos fan on the West Coast, then you're one of the week's losers, too, after changes to immigration rules caused them to cancel their tour. They're promising to reschedule for later this year, but the disappointment in the maxomai household was palpable.

Who do you think lost the week?
maxomai: dog (Default)
Today, there are three things for which I am grateful

The love of my family, friends and spouse;

The material comforts that my wife and I are able to assemble for ourselves;

And the Rose Bowl is finally here.



GO DUCKS!

UPDATE 45-38! Not bad!
maxomai: dog (Default)
Today, there are three things for which I am grateful

The love of my family, friends and spouse;

The material comforts that my wife and I are able to assemble for ourselves;

And the Rose Bowl is finally here.



GO DUCKS!

UPDATE 45-38! Not bad!
maxomai: dog (Default)

I thought the Ducks were going to get creamed. As it turns out, they kept the game competitive literally to the last second. It’s not easy to make an SEC team work that hard. A former roommate of mine from Georgia, an Auburn graduate, is undoubtedly very happy right now.


Thus my first prediction for 2011 comes true.








Originally published at maxomai.org

maxomai: dog (Default)

I thought the Ducks were going to get creamed. As it turns out, they kept the game competitive literally to the last second. It’s not easy to make an SEC team work that hard. A former roommate of mine from Georgia, an Auburn graduate, is undoubtedly very happy right now.


Thus my first prediction for 2011 comes true.








Originally published at maxomai.org

maxomai: dog (Default)

Those of you who followed my LiveJournal may recall that I made some predictions for 2010. As it turns out, I didn’t do quite as well on these as I did last year, or in 2008 or in my banner year of 2007. Follow along if you will…..


1. US combat forces will leave Iraq, but logistical and support forces will remain behind. This HAPPENED, pretty much on the schedule that Obama’s predecessor set down. Of course, the bloodshed still continues. 1/1


2. The schedule for the Afghanistan escalation will extend to at least 2014 Called it. BTW, I fully expect that particular quagmire to unfold very much as Vietnam did. (Or, to use a more apt analogy, as Afghanistan did for Great Britain and the USSR.) 2/2


3. The Green Revolution in Iran will either succeed in its goals or grow stronger all year. The riots died down, but the divisions that they represented seem to have grown stronger, manifesting themselves in calls within the legislature to impeach President Ahmadinejad for corruption. Right now, it’s only the clerics that are keeping Ahmadinejad in power. I’m going to give myself credit on this one. 3/3


4. Democrats will retain control of Congress. This PARTIALLY HAPPENED. The tide turned worse against the Democrats than I expected, and the Citizens United decision had the unintended consequence of allowing corporations and wealthy individuals to spend billions of dollars on the election completely anonymously. This allowed the GOP to better leverage their traditional strength in simple, gut-level messaging, and dominate the election. Thus the Democrats lost the House. However, the Sarah Palin wing of the GOP and their corporate benefactors in the Koch Brothers backed some real losers for several Senate races, and while some of their favorites (notably Rand Paul and Mark Rubio) made it, others (notably Christine O’Donnell, Ken Buck and Sharron Angle) indisputably cost the GOP a number of easy wins. Thus the Democrats retain control of the Senate. Most Americans think the GOP controls both chambers, which will make the events of next year an interesting surprise for a lot of folks. 3.5/4


5. Alexi Giannoulias will be the next US Senator from the State of Illinois This DIDN’T HAPPEN; Alexi got the nomination, of course, but ended up losing to Kirk by two points. What’s really weird about this is that Alexi was up against an incredibly weak candidate, whereas Pat Quinn, the incumbent Democrat in the Illinois Governor’s race, was an incredibly weak candidate against Brady. In the end, the strength of the candidates in each case didn’t matter as much as the strength of their campaigns. Giannoulias’s messaging was awful; Quinn’s GOTV effort outstanding. Thus, I expected Giannoulias to win and Quinn to lose, but it ended up the other way around. Lesson learned. 3.5/5


6. Health Care reform will be signed into law. This HAPPENED. I’d like for people to keep in mind that this was not an easy prediction to make a year ago. People’s attitudes about the law are decidedly mixed. The one part that nobody likes — the health insurance mandate — is being challenged in the courts right now, and I give it a coin toss to go down. If it does, I believe the rest of this law will survive — and the intended effect of the mandate, which is to encourage people to buy insurance before they get sick, will be handled by other means, such as restricting the buy-in period. Once the mandate goes, the rest of this law should be very popular. 4.5/6


7. Unemployment will shrink to 8% (U3) This DIDN’T HAPPEN, and I have learned from this that Krugman is more right than I previously believed. 4.5/7


8. The stock market will hit 12000 As of the closing of the market yesterday afternoon, the DJIA was at 11,575.54. I don’t believe that a 424.46 point rally in the few couple of days is very likely. DIDN’T HAPPEN. 4.5/8


9. Oregon wins the Rose Bowl. It turns out they were crushed by Ohio State. I still think the Big X isn’t that hot compared to the Pac X or the SEC. 4.5/9


10. Colts win the Super Bowl. I made this decision with my head, but I was rooting on New Orleans. I am glad to have been wrong on this one. 4.5/10








maxomai: dog (Default)

Those of you who followed my LiveJournal may recall that I made some predictions for 2010. As it turns out, I didn’t do quite as well on these as I did last year, or in 2008 or in my banner year of 2007. Follow along if you will…..


1. US combat forces will leave Iraq, but logistical and support forces will remain behind. This HAPPENED, pretty much on the schedule that Obama’s predecessor set down. Of course, the bloodshed still continues. 1/1


2. The schedule for the Afghanistan escalation will extend to at least 2014 Called it. BTW, I fully expect that particular quagmire to unfold very much as Vietnam did. (Or, to use a more apt analogy, as Afghanistan did for Great Britain and the USSR.) 2/2


3. The Green Revolution in Iran will either succeed in its goals or grow stronger all year. The riots died down, but the divisions that they represented seem to have grown stronger, manifesting themselves in calls within the legislature to impeach President Ahmadinejad for corruption. Right now, it’s only the clerics that are keeping Ahmadinejad in power. I’m going to give myself credit on this one. 3/3


4. Democrats will retain control of Congress. This PARTIALLY HAPPENED. The tide turned worse against the Democrats than I expected, and the Citizens United decision had the unintended consequence of allowing corporations and wealthy individuals to spend billions of dollars on the election completely anonymously. This allowed the GOP to better leverage their traditional strength in simple, gut-level messaging, and dominate the election. Thus the Democrats lost the House. However, the Sarah Palin wing of the GOP and their corporate benefactors in the Koch Brothers backed some real losers for several Senate races, and while some of their favorites (notably Rand Paul and Mark Rubio) made it, others (notably Christine O’Donnell, Ken Buck and Sharron Angle) indisputably cost the GOP a number of easy wins. Thus the Democrats retain control of the Senate. Most Americans think the GOP controls both chambers, which will make the events of next year an interesting surprise for a lot of folks. 3.5/4


5. Alexi Giannoulias will be the next US Senator from the State of Illinois This DIDN’T HAPPEN; Alexi got the nomination, of course, but ended up losing to Kirk by two points. What’s really weird about this is that Alexi was up against an incredibly weak candidate, whereas Pat Quinn, the incumbent Democrat in the Illinois Governor’s race, was an incredibly weak candidate against Brady. In the end, the strength of the candidates in each case didn’t matter as much as the strength of their campaigns. Giannoulias’s messaging was awful; Quinn’s GOTV effort outstanding. Thus, I expected Giannoulias to win and Quinn to lose, but it ended up the other way around. Lesson learned. 3.5/5


6. Health Care reform will be signed into law. This HAPPENED. I’d like for people to keep in mind that this was not an easy prediction to make a year ago. People’s attitudes about the law are decidedly mixed. The one part that nobody likes — the health insurance mandate — is being challenged in the courts right now, and I give it a coin toss to go down. If it does, I believe the rest of this law will survive — and the intended effect of the mandate, which is to encourage people to buy insurance before they get sick, will be handled by other means, such as restricting the buy-in period. Once the mandate goes, the rest of this law should be very popular. 4.5/6


7. Unemployment will shrink to 8% (U3) This DIDN’T HAPPEN, and I have learned from this that Krugman is more right than I previously believed. 4.5/7


8. The stock market will hit 12000 As of the closing of the market yesterday afternoon, the DJIA was at 11,575.54. I don’t believe that a 424.46 point rally in the few couple of days is very likely. DIDN’T HAPPEN. 4.5/8


9. Oregon wins the Rose Bowl. It turns out they were crushed by Ohio State. I still think the Big X isn’t that hot compared to the Pac X or the SEC. 4.5/9


10. Colts win the Super Bowl. I made this decision with my head, but I was rooting on New Orleans. I am glad to have been wrong on this one. 4.5/10








maxomai: (President Barack Hussein Obama)
It's a matter of public record that I expected, as of 12/31/09, for the Colts to win the Super Bowl. This is not because I wanted the Colts to win...at the time, I stated that my preference was for the Saints. Simply put, I realized that the Colts had the best team in football, and that that made them the most likely champion.

Of course, the Saints won the game, very much to my delight.

IMO, this isn't because they were the better skilled, better rehearsed, team. The Colts played good, conservative football, that interception in the fourth quarter notwithstanding. The Saints, OTOH, took risks, and they paid off.

In other words, it's because the Saints had the bigger gonads. TD on Fourth Down? Gonads. Two point conversion? Gonads. Onside kick to start the third quarter? SUV-sized plutonium gonads. Not all of those plays worked, but they all put the Saints in such a position that the Colts had to think bigger, and that set up the interception in the fourth quarter. Simply put, if the Saints had played more conservative football, the Colts would take home the trophy.

One hopes that Harry Reid learns something from this...and maybe he has. And maybe Obama's figuring it out too. They'd better, because if they play this year conservatively, they're going to lose big.

(BTW, Nate Silver suggests that the fourth down TD attempt was actually a more conservative play than it looks. Maybe. The problem with statistical processes is that there's room for error.)
maxomai: (President Barack Hussein Obama)
It's a matter of public record that I expected, as of 12/31/09, for the Colts to win the Super Bowl. This is not because I wanted the Colts to win...at the time, I stated that my preference was for the Saints. Simply put, I realized that the Colts had the best team in football, and that that made them the most likely champion.

Of course, the Saints won the game, very much to my delight.

IMO, this isn't because they were the better skilled, better rehearsed, team. The Colts played good, conservative football, that interception in the fourth quarter notwithstanding. The Saints, OTOH, took risks, and they paid off.

In other words, it's because the Saints had the bigger gonads. TD on Fourth Down? Gonads. Two point conversion? Gonads. Onside kick to start the third quarter? SUV-sized plutonium gonads. Not all of those plays worked, but they all put the Saints in such a position that the Colts had to think bigger, and that set up the interception in the fourth quarter. Simply put, if the Saints had played more conservative football, the Colts would take home the trophy.

One hopes that Harry Reid learns something from this...and maybe he has. And maybe Obama's figuring it out too. They'd better, because if they play this year conservatively, they're going to lose big.

(BTW, Nate Silver suggests that the fourth down TD attempt was actually a more conservative play than it looks. Maybe. The problem with statistical processes is that there's room for error.)

Hm.

Nov. 22nd, 2009 08:43 pm
maxomai: (typewriter guy wtf)
Think I'm gonna switch to cheering the Saints this year.

Hm.

Nov. 22nd, 2009 08:43 pm
maxomai: (typewriter guy wtf)
Think I'm gonna switch to cheering the Saints this year.

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