Feb. 3rd, 2014

maxomai: dog (dog)
Rasmussen's been acting funny of late, but a lot of people still trust this lean-R poll. For my money, lean-D PPP is a bit better once you account for the bias. But Rasmussen seems to hold more sway with conservative audiences. And that is why their latest poll of Kentucky should scare the shit out of Mitch McConnell.


500 Kentucky LVs polled January 29-30 2014

McConnell (R) 42
Grimes (D) 42

The rest of the poll is behind a paywall, but Rasmussen claims that they show McConnell's primary opponent, Matt Bevin, beating Grimes by six points.

Rasmussen has a Republican bias in their likely voter model — meaning, they count more Republicans as likely voters than are actually likely to show up. This cuts two ways here. On the one hand, if exaggerated GOP turnout leads to a McConnell tie, then Grimes is probably a few points ahead of him. On the other hand, an exaggerated Republican electorate might prefer a more conservative candidate like Bevin over McConnell, but that means that Bevin will have an easier time beating Grimes if Rasmussen's LV model is correct. And, it bears mentioning, if Bevin doesn't make some stupid, inane remark that makes him the next Todd Akin. I would bet money that one of those two conditions will fail.

Nonetheless, this poll makes the case that McConnell is a weaker candidate than Bevin, and does so in a way that's compelling to McConnell's base. Between this and probably trailing Grimes, this poll has to sting at McConnell HQ this morning.
maxomai: dog (dog)
Via PollingReport.com comes the latest round of monthly head-to-head polling matching up Hillary Clinton versus the most likely Republican candidates. It ain't pretty. After Bridgegate, the candidate who comes closest to beating Clinton is Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI). Clinton still beats Ryan by fifteen points, which is the generally accepted definition of a landslide.

I've said it over and over again: if Hillary Clinton runs in 2016, she wins. This just supports my case.
maxomai: dog (dog)

  • RIP Joan Mondale, wife of former VP and Democratic Presidential candidate Walter Mondale.

  • John Kerry offers the Palestianians a brand new reservation near Gaza, to compensate for illegal settlements and other land grabs in their present reservation on the West Bank. Neither side appears happy with this idea.

  • California may soon run out of drinking water. By "soon," we mean 60-120 days. But global warming is a hoax.

  • Tanks are a relic of 20th Century warfare that is losing its niche in the 21st Century. So why do we keep building them? A window into the politics and economics of defense spending here.

  • Last week — before the Super Bowl — Jon Bois ran Madden NFL 25 pitting the best possible team the game would allow against the worst possible team the game would allow. After the best possible team racked up an estimated 366 points to the worst possible team's 0, the game died a horrible death before the end of the first quarter. As it turns out, he called the best possible team the Seahawks, and the worst possible team the Broncos. Cue Twilight Zone theme music.

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